高频：高频｜杭州新房销售回暖，开工率大多下行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the year-on-year decline in new home sales narrowed. The new home sales in second-tier cities formed a support, with Hangzhou's performance being outstanding, possibly affected by discounted sales and concentrated supply. The new home sales in second-tier cities were stronger than the same period last year, while those in first, third, and fourth-tier cities were still significantly weaker [3]. - Most commodity prices and production start rates declined. The investment and production situation was relatively stable during the off - season, and attention should be paid to the implementation of previous policies [3]. - Metro ridership and domestic flights remained at a high level, indicating strong consumer mobility. However, movie box - office sales were below the seasonal level [3]. - Pork, vegetable, and oil prices declined. The decline in vegetable prices was due to the recovery of supply after the temperature rose, and the decline in oil prices was due to the potential return of Russian oil and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - This week, SCFI declined while BDI increased. The US government shutdown led to a significant drop in freight rates on the North American route [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales in Second - Tier Cities Turned Positive Year - on - Year - From November 14th to November 20th, the new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 23.78% week - on - week and decreased by 15.85% year - on - year. The new home sales in first - tier cities were weaker than the previous period, while those in second, third, and fourth - tier cities were significantly stronger. Second - tier cities' new home sales were stronger than the same period last year, while first, third, and fourth - tier cities' sales were still significantly weaker [3][8]. - In terms of key cities, most key cities' new home sales increased week - on - week, except for Shanghai (-17.62%) and Shenzhen (-7.54%). Hangzhou had a significant increase of 101.87%. Year - on - year, except for Hangzhou (105.64%), new home sales in other key cities were significantly weaker than last year [8]. - Second - hand home sales decreased week - on - week and the year - on - year decline narrowed. Among key cities, except for Hangzhou (1.42%), second - hand home sales in other key cities were slightly weaker than the previous period. Year - on - year, second - hand home sales in all key cities decreased significantly [8]. 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - Most commodity prices declined this week. The price of rebar increased slightly due to stable demand, supply contraction, and inventory decline. The price of asphalt decreased slightly as the cost support weakened with the decline of crude oil, and supply increased during the off - season. The cement price decreased slightly because rainy weather inhibited construction and demand was weak. The glass futures price declined due to stable supply, weak demand, and high inventory pressure [3][34]. 3. Production: Most Start Rates Declined - Most production start rates declined this week. The start rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and PTA decreased. The blast furnace start rate of steel mills decreased slightly, the start rate of coking enterprises increased, and the start rate of polyester filament increased slightly [3][42]. 4. Consumption: Strong Mobility - Consumer mobility was strong. Metro ridership, domestic flights, and automobile consumption were above the seasonal level, while movie box - office sales were below the seasonal level [3][50]. 5. Export: SCFI Declined, BDI Increased - This week, the SCFI index declined, the BDI index increased, the port throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index declined slightly. The US government shutdown led to weak transportation demand and a significant drop in freight rates on the North American route [3][57]. 6. Prices: Pork, Vegetable, and Oil Prices Declined - This week, pork, vegetable, and oil prices declined. Vegetable prices decreased slightly as the supply recovered with the temperature rise and vegetables from multiple production areas were concentrated on the market. The decline in oil prices was due to the potential return of Russian oil and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The rebar price increased slightly [3][61].