高频经济周报：地产季节性回升，港口吞吐量下行-20251122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the economic situation from multiple aspects, indicating that industrial production is weak, personnel flow is increasing, consumption shows a downward trend, investment has seasonal recoveries, and exports have a decline in port throughput but an increase in most shipping indices. Meanwhile, bond indices generally rise, while stock indices and commodities generally fall, and most foreign currencies decline [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Large - scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices and commodities generally fell, and most foreign currencies declined. Among them, the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index rose the most, with a gain of 0.07%. The ChiNext Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 6.15%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell the most among commodities, with a decline of 4.07%. The Japanese yen had the largest decline against the RMB, with a weekly decline of 1.19%, while the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.14% [3][8]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production performance was weak. Upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 4.20 pcts to 24.80%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pcts to 82.17%, and the crude steel output increased by 6.00% week - on - week. In the real estate chain, the rebar operating rate increased by 1.31 pcts to 43.29%, the float glass operating rate decreased by 0.34 pcts to 74.96%, and the mill operating rate decreased by 0.39 pcts to 33.29%. In the general consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.10 pcts to 91.33%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.89 pcts to 74.29%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 0.17 pcts to 83.77%. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 2.61 pcts to 71.07%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires decreased by 3.19 pcts to 61.31% [3][11]. 3.3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to increase, and freight prices increased slightly. In terms of personnel flow, the 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.45% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operation numbers increased by 1.51% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of international flight operation numbers increased by 0.84% week - on - week. The subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased, while that in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased. In terms of freight volume, the 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period last year [3]. 3.4. Consumption - Automobile sales growth declined year - on - year, and price performance declined. The previous period's automobile wholesale decreased by 5.00% year - on - year, and retail decreased by 9.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale year - on - year growth and the 4WMA of retail year - on - year growth declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 22% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 22% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices declined, with pork prices decreasing by 0.83% week - on - week and vegetable prices decreasing by 6.08% week - on - week [3]. 3.5. Investment - Construction performance was good, and the commercial housing market had a seasonal upswing. This period's cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.1 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.43% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate was flat compared to last week. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.3 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.7% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 24.2% week - on - week. By city tier, the commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities decreased, while that in second - tier and third - tier cities increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3]. 3.6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and most shipping indices increased. This period's port cargo throughput decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, and container throughput decreased by 5.4% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 7.06% week - on - week, and the domestic SCFI index decreased by 3.98% week - on - week, while the CCFI index increased by 2.63% week - on - week [3].