Core Viewpoints - The current adjustment is characterized as a "doubtful bull market level," indicating that the major trends in the AI industry chain have not ended, although there are short-term fluctuations and a temporary lack of cost-effectiveness in large trends. This situation resembles historical patterns observed in early 2014, early 2018, and early 2021 [1][3][5] - The "two-stage bull market theory" remains unchanged, suggesting that the transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is a typical feature of the A-share bull market cycle. The transition period is expected to occur in the first half of 2026, with a full bull market potentially starting in the second half of 2026 [1][5][6] Summary by Sections Adjustment Phase - The adjustment phase is seen as a "doubtful bull market level," where the AI industry chain is experiencing a lack of cost-effectiveness, leading to a market correction. Historical experiences indicate that such adjustments are typical and often occur in quarterly cycles [3][4] - The current market conditions show that the implied equity risk premium (ERP) in sectors like telecommunications and electronics is still above historical lows, while the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are at absolute historical highs [3][4] Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is expected to be more promising post-adjustment, with economic growth needing to maintain a high level to achieve the 2035 medium-developed country goal. The third quarter of 2025 showed weak economic performance, and December 2025 is seen as a critical window for laying out economic policies for 2026 [6][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to see a rapid improvement in cost-effectiveness, with institutional investors reducing their technology holdings in the short term. The micro-structural improvements in the technology sector are also expected to play a significant role in the spring market rotation [6][7] 2026 Industry Style and Rhythm Outlook - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is expected to favor high-dividend defensive stocks. The actual improvement in economic sentiment will catalyze cyclical stocks to lead index breakthroughs, with technology trends and manufacturing global influence being the main themes of the bull market [8] - In the spring of 2026, the early validation of policy bottoms, cyclical price increases, and improved year-on-year PPI expectations will provide a foundation for cyclical assets. Key areas of focus include basic chemicals, industrial technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense industries, with potential rebounds in AI computing power, storage, energy storage, and robotics [8]
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/11/17-25/11/22)：调整是也只是怀疑牛市级别
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-22 12:46