镍周报：短期基本面压力明显，镍价或继续承压-20251122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term fundamentals of nickel are under significant pressure, and nickel prices may continue to be under pressure. The supply side shows that the price of nickel iron is falling rapidly, the expectation of converting to high - grade nickel matte is increasing, the demand for nickel sulfate is gradually weakening, and the supply of refined nickel raw materials is further supplemented. On the demand side, there is no increase in market demand, and domestic and foreign inventories are continuously accumulating. From the cost perspective, the price of nickel ore has shown a slight decline. If the price cannot remain stable in the future, it may have a negative feedback effect and drive down downstream prices. It is not recommended to chase short positions. Instead, wait for the nickel iron price to stabilize before further observation. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3 - month nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: The price of nickel ore was stable with a slight decline this week. In the Philippines, the cost of domestic nickel - iron smelters was in a more severe state of inversion, the demand for ore weakened significantly, and port inventories accumulated significantly. Although the price of Philippine ore did not decline this week, it is expected to be under pressure in the future due to weak terminal demand. In Indonesia, the production of nickel ore has increased significantly recently, the overall supply - demand of pyrometallurgical ore is relatively loose, and the profit margin of Indonesian iron plants is close to zero, so they have a low acceptance of high - priced ore, and the ore price is expected to decline slightly; the market for hydrometallurgical ore remains relatively dull, and the price is expected to remain stable mainly supported by MHP demand [12]. - Nickel iron: Terminal consumption was weak this week, and the negative feedback effect drove the price of high - nickel pig iron to continue to decline. On the demand side, it is currently the traditional off - season for stainless steel demand, terminal consumption is weak, downstream enterprises have high inventories, are cautious in purchasing, and have a strong wait - and - see attitude. On the supply side, the market is bearish, some traders continue to sell at reduced prices, and the market quotation and transaction center of gravity have further declined. In the future, the profit level of nickel iron is already at an absolute low, and the price is expected to change with the ore price [12]. - Intermediate products: The short - term supply - demand of MHP remains tight. Driven by the reduction of cobalt export quotas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and strong demand for nickel sulfate, the nickel and cobalt coefficients remain at high levels. High - grade nickel matte plays an obvious supplementary role to MHP, and its coefficient price also remains high. In the future, as the demand for nickel sulfate enters the off - season, the price of intermediate products may loosen [12]. - Refined nickel: Nickel prices continued to fall this week. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 114,130 yuan/ton on Friday, a decline of 2.70%, and the LME nickel quoted at 14,620 US dollars/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 1.75%. Macroscopically, the hawkish stance of Federal Reserve officials combined with the lack of economic data made the market sentiment cautious, and risk assets performed weakly. In the spot market, the overall price was stronger than the futures price, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased significantly [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures nickel price trend: Nickel prices continued to fall this week. As of November 21, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 114,130 yuan/ton on Friday, a decline of 2.70%; the LME nickel quoted at 14,620 US dollars/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 1.75% [17]. - Nickel spot premium and discount: The spot premium and discount remained stable. As of November 14, the average spot price of Russian nickel had a premium and discount of 500 yuan/ton compared to the nearby contract, the same as last week. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with the average price increasing by 300 yuan/ton compared to last week [21]. - Secondary nickel price: The price of nickel iron continued to be weak. As of November 21, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 882 - 900 yuan per nickel point, with the average price decreasing by 15 yuan per nickel point compared to the same period last week. The price of nickel sulfate gradually weakened. As of November 21, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,980 - 28,180 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 310 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week [24]. 3.3 Cost Side - Nickel ore: The price of nickel ore was stable with a slight decline. On November 21, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at 52.5 US dollars per wet ton, a decrease of 0.2 US dollars per wet ton compared to last week; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars per wet ton, the same as last week; the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars per wet ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar per wet ton compared to last week [33]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - Supply: In October 2025, the national refined nickel production was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to September [48]. - Demand: The demand for refined nickel is related to the production and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries. However, specific demand data and trends are not clearly summarized in the text [49][51]. - Import and export: No specific analysis of import and export trends was provided in the text [53]. - Inventory: The global visible nickel inventory increased by 761 tons to 306,094 tons this week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down slightly [57]. - Cost: No specific cost - related analysis was provided in the text [58]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Supply: No specific analysis of supply trends was provided in the text [62]. - Demand: No specific analysis of demand trends was provided in the text [65]. - Cost and price: No specific analysis of cost and price trends was provided in the text [67]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The global supply and quarterly supply - demand balance of nickel from 2019 to 2025 were predicted. From 2023 to 2025, the overall supply of nickel exceeded demand, and the supply - demand gap showed a certain degree of fluctuation. For example, in 2023, the supply - demand gap was 82,900 tons; in 2024, it was 53,200 tons; and in 2025, it is expected to be 126,600 tons [74].