Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Global equity market corrections and geopolitical tensions have made the market cautious, leading to significant short - and long - position reductions in Shanghai aluminum and a decline in aluminum prices. However, the relatively low global visible aluminum ingot inventory and supply disruption expectations still strongly support aluminum prices. Despite the downstream moving into the off - season, with price corrections, the domestic inventory accumulation pressure is expected to be low, and aluminum prices may strengthen further after oscillatory adjustments. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,750 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the monthly industry operating rate remaining stable. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in October increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month [11]. - Inventory & Spot: As of Thursday, the aluminum ingot inventory was 613,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last Thursday; the bonded area inventory was 62,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 152,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from last Thursday; the LME global aluminum inventory was 548,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last week. The domestic East China aluminum ingot spot basis first declined and then rose, and the LME market Cash/3M discount widened to $30.9/ton [11]. - Import & Export: In October 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 248,000 tons, up 1.8% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.9%. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6%. Recently, the spot import loss of Shanghai aluminum has narrowed [11]. - Demand: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises remained stable at 62% this week, showing off - season characteristics. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained stable, the aluminum cable operating rate rebounded slightly supported by power grid orders, while the operating rates of aluminum plates, strips, profiles, and foils were under pressure, with the overall operating rate being stable but weak [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai aluminum fell 2.3% to 21,340 yuan/ton this week, and LME aluminum fell 1.7% to $2,808/ton. The spread between the first and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum narrowed compared with last week [19][21]. - Spot: The East China spot premium rebounded, while the discounts in South China and Central China narrowed. The LME aluminum Cash/3M discount widened [32][38]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit decreased compared with last week but remained at a historical high [43]. - Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory was 613,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last Thursday; bonded area inventory was 62,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last week; aluminum rod inventory was 152,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from last Thursday; LME global aluminum inventory was 548,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last week and at a low level in the same period of previous years [48][51][57]. 4. Cost Side - Bauxite: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices remained stable [69]. - Alumina: The domestic alumina price decreased by 11 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the import price decreased by $1/ton [72]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price and thermal coal price remained flat compared with last week [76]. 5. Supply Side - Alumina: In October, the domestic alumina output was 7.785 million tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from September and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [82]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the monthly industry operating rate remaining stable. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in October increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.4% in October and is expected to decline slightly in November. The electrolytic aluminum output of each province in October increased compared with September [85][88][93]. 6. Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: In October, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates, strips, and foils declined month - on - month; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased month - on - month, while the aluminum rod operating rate declined month - on - month; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [104][107][110]. - Terminal Demand: In November 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all declined compared with the actual production in the same period last year. In October, real estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules was expected to decline slightly [114]. 7. Import and Export - Primary Aluminum: In October 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 248,000 tons, up 1.8% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.9%. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened. In October, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the proportion of imports from Russia dropping to 63% [119][123]. - Unwrought Aluminum and Aluminum Products: In October 2025, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [128]. - Recycled Aluminum: In October 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 158,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to October were 1.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [128]. - Bauxite: In October 2025, China's bauxite imports were 13.766 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 71.8%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to October were 170.959 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.1% [131]. - Alumina: In October 2025, China exported 176,000 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to October were 2.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.7% [131].
铝周报：多空明显减仓，铝价回落-20251122
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-22 13:33