Report Title - "Waiting for the Price Consolidation to Complete - Precious Metals Weekly Report (2025/11/22)" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy significantly rebounded after the key voting members' speeches on Friday, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. However, further driving forces will be concentrated in December. It is recommended to keep the bottom position and wait and see for now. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 896 - 940 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - Weekly Market Review: This week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and weak trend. By the close of Friday's daytime session, Shanghai gold fell 2.75% to 926.94 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 5.43% to 11680.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.53% to 4062.80 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 1.47% to 49.66 US dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index rose 0.87% to 100.15 [11] - Influence Factors: In the first half of the week, precious metal prices were weak due to the Fed's hawkish meeting minutes and better - than - expected September non - farm payroll data. After the release of the meeting minutes and the non - farm report, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in the December FOMC meeting was priced down to 30%. On Friday, several Fed voting members' "dovish rescue" supported precious metal prices, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in the December meeting was priced up to 70% [11] - Inventory Situation: The inventories of domestic and overseas silver continued to decline. As of November 21, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver decreased by 50.08 tons to 519.3 tons, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 274.73 tons to 14329.5 tons. The term structure of Shanghai silver has changed, indicating that the domestic silver demand in the fourth quarter remains resilient [11] - Technical Analysis: The technical chart of Shanghai gold is weaker than that of Shanghai silver. After breaking below the upward trend line, it has entered a consolidation phase. It is expected that the gold price will mainly consolidate in the short term. The Shanghai silver index was supported after touching the trend line this week. It is expected to complete the consolidation in December and start a new upward trend [13][17] 2. Market Review - Price and Index Changes: By the close of Friday's daytime session, Shanghai gold and silver, as well as COMEX gold and silver prices all declined, while the US dollar index rose. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06% [29] - Position Changes: This week, the total position of Shanghai gold decreased by 3.06% to 329,000 lots, and the total position of COMEX gold as of October 7 was 486,000 lots. The total position of Shanghai silver decreased by 0.32% to 710,900 lots, and the total position of COMEX silver as of October 7 was 167,000 lots. As of the October 7 reporting period, the net positions of COMEX gold and silver managed funds both declined [31][33][35] - ETF Holdings: As of November 21, the total holding of gold ETFs within the LSEG statistical range was 2313 tons, and the total holding of overseas silver ETFs was 28019.4 tons [40] 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - US Treasury Yield Curve: The report presents the spreads between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds, as well as the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds [50] - Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations: It shows the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [53] - Fed's Balance Sheet: The weekly changes in the Fed's balance sheet are detailed, including the changes in assets and liabilities [55] 4. Macroeconomic Data - US CPI & PCE: In September, the year - on - year value of the US CPI was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 2.9%. The month - on - month value was 0.3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 0.4%. The year - on - year value of the core CPI was 3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.1%, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the previous value of 0.3% [62] - US Employment Situation: As of the week of November 15, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 220,000, lower than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 228,000 [65] - US PMI & PPI: In October, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50 [68] - US New Home Data: In August, the annualized number of new home sales in the US was 800,000, significantly higher than the previous value of 664,000. The annualized value of building permits was 1.33 million, and the annualized value of new home starts was 1.307 million [71] 5. Precious Metal Spreads - Gold Basis: The report shows the basis between gold TD and SHFE gold [74] - Silver Basis: It presents the basis between silver TD and SHFE silver [77] - Domestic and Overseas Spreads of Gold and Silver: The domestic and overseas spreads of gold and silver are also provided [80] 6. Precious Metal Inventories - Silver Inventory: The inventories of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX are presented, showing a downward trend [88][90] - Gold Inventory: The inventories of gold in COMEX and LBMA are also shown [93]
贵金属周报 2025/11/22：静待价格盘整完成-20251122
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-22 13:32