股指周报：快速调整后，有望阶段性企稳-20251122

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report After a period of continuous rise, coupled with the adjustment of US stocks overseas, market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces certain uncertainties. However, in the long - run, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important News: Diplomatic tensions between China and Japan, signs of a sell - off in US stocks, potential Fed rate cuts, and possible relaxation of US restrictions on Nvidia's chip sales to China [10]. - Economic and Corporate Earnings: In October 2025, industrial added value grew 4.9% year - on - year, retail sales 2.9%, and fixed - asset investment fell 1.7%. Manufacturing PMI was 49.0, lower than expected. M1 and M2 growth rates declined, and social financing increment decreased. Exports in US dollars decreased, and housing prices fell [10]. - Interest Rates and Credit Environment: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate diverged, credit spreads narrowed, and liquidity remained loose [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendations: Hold a small number of IM long positions in the long - term due to low - to - medium valuation and long - term discount. Hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Stock Index Performance: Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others all declined, with the decline ranging from 2.72% (Shanghai 50) to 6.15% (ChiNext Index) [14]. - Futures Contract Performance: All futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, showed declines, with the decline rate varying from 2.49% (IH current month) to 5.70% (IC next month) [15]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - Economic Indicators: The Q3 2025 GDP real growth rate was 4.8%. In October, manufacturing PMI was 49.0, consumption growth was 2.9%, exports in US dollars decreased by 1.1%, and investment growth was - 1.7%. Manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investment growth rates continued to decline [32][35][38]. - Corporate Earnings: In the 2025 third - quarter report, the year - on - year revenue growth rate was 1.24%, and the net profit growth rate was 3.89%, both showing an upward trend compared to the semi - annual report [41]. 4. Interest Rates and Credit Environment - Interest Rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate showed different trends. DR007, 7 - day reverse - repurchase rate, and reverse - repurchase volume were presented. There were also comparisons of Sino - US 10 - year bond rates and spreads [44][47][49]. - Credit Environment: In October 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates declined, and the social financing increment decreased, mainly due to the front - loading of government bond issuance and a decrease in household loans [55]. 5. Fundamentals - Fund Inflows: This week, about 220.97 billion shares of equity - oriented funds were newly established, and the new margin trading balance was - 3.18 billion yuan, with the latest balance reaching a record high of 24,743.61 billion yuan [61][64]. - Fund Outflows: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 74.35 billion yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 2 [67]. 6. Valuation - Valuation Indicators: The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of Shanghai 50 was 11.88, CSI 300 was 13.87, CSI 500 was 31.11, and CSI 1000 was 44.77. The price - to - book ratio (LF) of Shanghai 50 was 1.30, CSI 300 was 1.44, CSI 500 was 2.12, and CSI 1000 was 2.35 [71].