聚酯周报：调油数据走弱，芳烃估值或将止步-20251122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With the weakening of aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction as it is in a slightly oversupplied situation [11]. - PTA's processing fee has slightly recovered, but the upside space is limited without further stimulus. PXN also faces a risk of valuation correction [12]. - For MEG, the supply - demand outlook remains weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies as the inventory build - up needs to be mitigated by reducing the load [13]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations PX - Price: The 01 contract dropped 56 yuan to 6750 yuan last week, while the CFR China spot price rose 7 dollars to 833 dollars [11]. - Supply: China's load was 89.5%, up 2.7% week - on - week; Asia's load was 79.7%, up 1.2%. Some plants restarted, and imports from South Korea to China increased [11]. - Demand: PTA load decreased to 71%, down 4.7% week - on - week due to plant maintenance [11]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory build - up expected in November [11]. - Valuation and cost: PXN was 260 dollars as of November 20, up 3 dollars year - on - year. Aromatics blending expectations weakened [11]. PTA - Price: The 01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4666 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 65 yuan to 4630 yuan [12]. - Supply: PTA load decreased to 71%, down 4.7% week - on - week because of accidental maintenance in November [12]. - Demand: Polyester load increased to 91.3%, up 0.8% week - on - week. However, the terminal is gradually entering the off - season [12]. - Inventory: It is expected to enter a phase of inventory reduction [12]. - Profit: Spot processing fee increased 25 yuan to 164 yuan/ton [12]. MEG - Price: The 01 contract declined 114 yuan to 3808 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 56 yuan to 3885 yuan [13]. - Supply: EG load decreased to 70.8%, down 0.7% week - on - week. There were many accidental plant maintenance events [13]. - Demand: Polyester load increased to 91.3%, up 0.8% week - on - week, but the terminal is in a downward trend [13]. - Inventory: Port inventory increased, but the inventory build - up rate is expected to slow down [13]. - Valuation and cost: Overall valuation is moderately low, but load reduction is needed to slow down inventory build - up [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets PX - Basis and spreads: The basis weakened, and monthly spreads fluctuated weakly [32]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, but figures are presented for reference [35][39][42]. PTA - Basis and spreads: The basis was at a low level, and monthly spreads strengthened [45]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, with relevant figures presented [48][52][55]. MEG - Basis and spreads: The basis weakened, and monthly spreads were weak [58]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, with corresponding figures given [66][69][72]. 3.3 Paraxylene (PX) Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity expansions are planned, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 300 - million - ton project in the second half of 2025 [79]. - Supply: Accidental plant outages recovered, and the October import volume slightly declined [82][86]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory build - up in September [88]. - Cost and profit: PXN was strong, short - process spreads were compressed, and naphtha spreads were strong [92]. - Aromatics blending: Gasoline performance weakened, and the relative value of blending decreased [99][110]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity is being added, like Hailun Petrochemical's 320 - million - ton project in July 2025 [132]. - Supply: Load decreased due to accidental maintenance, and exports are also affected [12][135]. - Inventory: Inventory is expected to decrease in the short - term [12]. - Profit and valuation: Processing fees slightly recovered [141]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity projects are underway, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton project in September 2025 [145]. - Supply: The operating rate decreased, especially for syngas - based plants [148]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and upstream and downstream factory inventories were relatively high [158]. - Cost: Coal prices declined, and ethylene was weak [168]. - Profit: Naphtha - based production profit dropped to a yearly low, and coal - based profit was significantly compressed [171]. 3.6 Polyester and End - Markets Polyester - Capacity: New filament plants were put into operation, and capacity continued to grow [184]. - Basis: Staple fiber basis was strong, and bottle chip basis fluctuated [187]. - Supply: The operating rate slightly increased [190]. - Inventory: Filament inventory was at a low level [197]. - Profit: Filament profit recovered [206]. End - Markets - Operating rate: The operating rate decreased, showing a year - on - year decline [210]. - Orders and inventory: Orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory decreased [219]. - Retail and exports: Domestic textile and clothing retail growth recovered, while exports were weak [223]. - US inventory: US clothing wholesale inventory was below the pre - pandemic high, with a marginal increase [225].