Report Title - Hot Rolled Coil Weekly Report 2025/11/22 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is under short - term pressure, and the market is waiting for policy signals. In the short term, due to the weakening of interest - rate cut expectations, the commodity market sentiment is generally cold, and prices may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. However, as the Fed's easing expectations are gradually realized and positive signals are released from the China - US meeting, market sentiment and the capital environment are expected to improve. If the manufacturing repair trend continues, the steel consumption side may gradually stabilize and recover. In the medium term, as subsequent growth - stabilizing policies are gradually implemented and the macro - environment improves marginally, steel demand is expected to reach an inflection point and achieve a moderate recovery [1][9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost Side: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 57 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in gross profit. The futures price is about 10 yuan/ton higher than the spot price, and the valuation is neutral [7] - Supply Side: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, about a 2.4% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.9%. The daily average pig iron output this week was 2.3628 million tons, with a slight decline. The current hot - rolled coil production is relatively high, and the subsequent production reduction rhythm needs to be monitored [7] - Demand Side: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.24 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 108,000 tons, about a 2.2% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. Affected by the weak demand in infrastructure and manufacturing, the current demand for sheet metal is weak. Although the demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly this week, the demand level is difficult to absorb the production [8] - Inventory: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 402,110 tons, at a relatively high level, and the current inventory pressure is large [9] - Trading Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, contract basis, and price differences between different contracts. It also shows the price relationships between hot - rolled coils and other products such as cold - rolled coils, iron ore, and rebar [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - The report presents charts of the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces. It also shows the inventory data of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and coated plates, including total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory [57][62][68] 4. Cost Side - The report includes charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel. It also shows data on daily average pig iron output, iron - making costs, and the prices of related products [78][79][84] 5. Supply Side - It shows the weekly production, cumulative year - on - year production, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, color - coated plates, and galvanized plates in different regions [93][94][102] 6. Demand Side - The report provides data on the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the production and sales data of downstream products such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers [111][112][115] 7. Other - It includes production data of engines, civilian steel ships, and EMUs [130][131]
热卷周报 2025/11/22：钢价短期承压，等待政策信号-20251122
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-22 13:29