尿素周报：需求小幅好转，盘面窄幅震荡-20251122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - As the reserve demand and export stocking progress, the short - term domestic urea demand has improved. The seasonal increase in compound fertilizer production has also boosted demand. The supply - side production has slightly declined, leading to a slight improvement in domestic supply - demand balance. The futures price has a narrow - range movement, the spot price has a higher bottom, and the basis has strengthened. The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with limited downward space due to export policies and cost support, and no significant upward - driving factors in the short term. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Summary: With the progress of reserve demand and export stocking, short - term domestic urea demand has improved. The seasonal increase in compound fertilizer production has also driven up demand. The supply - side production has slightly declined, resulting in a slight improvement in domestic supply - demand balance. The futures price has a narrow - range movement, the spot price has a higher bottom, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The enterprise operation rate is 83.91%, a 0.17% decrease from the previous period, but it is at a high level compared to the same period last year. The daily production is 20.15 tons, expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level in the short term. The enterprise's advance orders are 7.12 days, a 0.59 - day decrease from the previous period [12]. - Demand: The profits of all production processes are at a low level. The compound fertilizer operation rate is 34.61%, a 4.29% increase from the previous period, and it will continue to increase seasonally. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - Valuation: The export profit is at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued. Currently, the domestic urea valuation is relatively low [12]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory is 143.72 tons, a 4.64 - ton decrease from the previous period, due to domestic reserve demand and export stocking. The port inventory is 10 tons, a 1.8 - ton increase from the previous period, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase [12]. - Market Logic: The combination of reserve demand and export benefits has led to a reduction in high - level enterprise inventory, and the supply - demand has slightly improved. However, the absolute inventory level of enterprises is still high, and the price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The prices of the 09, 01, and 05 contracts have changed, with the 09 contract decreasing by 14, the 01 contract increasing by 2, and the 05 contract increasing by 1. The 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads have also changed [13]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have increased to varying degrees, and the basis has strengthened [13]. - Downstream Market: The prices of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased, but the profits of compound fertilizers and melamine have changed differently [13]. - International Market: The international prices of urea have increased, and the export profit has reached a high level [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: The production profit is at a low level but has slightly rebounded [30]. - Inventory - Enterprise Inventory: The enterprise inventory has decreased, mainly due to domestic reserve demand and export stocking [12]. - Port Inventory: The port inventory has increased, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - Urea Operation Rate: The urea operation rate has returned to a high level compared to the same period last year [41]. - Device Maintenance - Current Maintenance: Many enterprises are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a certain amount of production loss [44]. - Planned Maintenance: Some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future, which may affect the supply [45]. 3.5. Demand Side - Consumption Forecast: The consumption of urea shows certain seasonal characteristics [50]. - Compound Fertilizer: The operation rate of compound fertilizers is mainly increasing seasonally, and the profit has changed [53]. - Nitrogen Source Price Ratio: The price ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources have changed [56]. - Melamine: The operation rate and profit of melamine have changed, and the export volume has also changed [59]. - Terminal Demand: The terminal demand is affected by factors such as real estate and exports [67]. - Export: The export profit is at a high level, and the export volume has changed [77]. 3.6. Options - Related - The trading volume, open interest, and volatility of urea options have changed, which can reflect the market's expectations and sentiment [91][97]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - The report provides diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics, which help to understand the overall structure and characteristics of the urea industry [100][102][104].