棉花周报：驱动不明显，延续震荡走势-20251122

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report From the fundamental perspective, demand is not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remains at a moderately weak level, and the previous decline in the futures market has digested the bearish impact of a bumper harvest. Currently, there is no strong driving force for the market, and it is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The price of US cotton futures fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was reported at 63.93 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.21 cents per pound or 0.33% from the previous week. The spread between the March - May contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reported at -1.26 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton continued to fluctuate. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was reported at 13,460 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton or 0.07% from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,371 yuan per ton, a decrease of 435 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 917 yuan per ton, a decrease of 425 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January - May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated, reported at 15 yuan per ton, an increase of 35 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - Industry Information: According to the latest monthly supply - demand report data from the USDA, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to the September estimate. Among them, the production in the US increased by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the production in Brazil increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the production in India remained at the estimated 5.23 million tons; and the production in China increased by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36%. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of November 14, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.1 percentage points compared to the average of the past five years (72.6%); the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons [9]. - View and Strategy: It is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The trading strategy recommendation is to wait and see [9][11]. 2. Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and spreads of US cotton contracts, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [23]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - Cotton Production: Charts show the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [37]. - Cotton Imports: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton are presented, as well as the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China [39][42]. - Cotton Yarn Imports: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn are shown [44]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented [47]. - Sales Progress: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown [49]. - Cotton Inventory: The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are presented, as well as the raw material and finished product inventories of spinning mills [52][54]. 4. International Market Situation - US Situation: Charts show the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the good - excellent rate of US cotton, production, planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio [58]. - Brazil Situation: The planting area, production, and export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio are presented [70]. - India Situation: The planting area, production, consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are shown [78].