鸡蛋周报：反弹后抛空-20251122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term focus is the support strength of demand. Before the spot price realizes seasonal increase, the futures market is expected to fluctuate. The near - month contracts will focus on the premium and discount, and the far - month contracts will reflect the expectation of capacity reduction. The spread between near - and far - month contracts will be mainly in reverse arbitrage. In the medium term, after the stocking period ends, the market focus will return to supply. It is still necessary to pay attention to the upper pressure and wait for a short - selling opportunity after a rebound [11][12] - The trading strategy suggests short - term waiting and observing, and paying attention to the upper pressure of the 01 - 06 contracts in the medium term. The arbitrage strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [13] Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot market: Last week, domestic egg prices declined slowly. Supply was sufficient, and demand was weak due to the lack of festival boost. As egg prices fell and losses widened, the enthusiasm for culling chickens increased, and the prices and ages of culled chickens continued to decline. Next week, egg prices may rise slightly, but the increase will be limited by supply [11] - Rearing and culling: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the market's enthusiasm for rearing chicks remained low. In October, the number of chicks reared decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. The enthusiasm for culling chickens remained high, and the age of chickens decreased to 491 days, but there was still a distance from excessive culling [11] - Inventory and trend: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than expected. It is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, with a 2.9% decline by March next year, but the absolute supply will still be relatively high [11] - Demand: As the temperature drops, the consumption side may experience a process of inventory accumulation followed by destocking before the Spring Festival [11] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot price trend: Last week, domestic egg prices declined slowly. Supply was sufficient, and demand was weak. Next week, egg prices may rise slightly, but the increase will be limited by supply [20] - Basis and spread: The spot price increase was less than expected, resulting in a weak basis. The spread between near - month contracts was mainly in reverse arbitrage [23] - Culled chicken price: Although egg prices rebounded from the low level, the breeding was still in a loss state. The enthusiasm for culling chickens remained high, and the price of culled chickens and the price difference between culled and white chickens reached new lows [26] 3. Supply Side - Egg - laying hen rearing: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the enthusiasm for rearing chicks remained low. In October, the number of chicks reared decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [33] - Culled chicken culling: The enthusiasm for culling chickens remained high, the price of old chickens reached a multi - year low, the price difference between culled and white chickens further decreased, and the age of chickens decreased to 491 days, but there was still a distance from excessive culling [36] - Inventory and trend: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than expected. It is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, with a 2.9% decline by March next year, but the absolute supply will still be relatively high [38][41] 4. Demand Side - Sales volume in sales areas: As the temperature drops, the consumption side may experience a process of inventory accumulation followed by destocking before the Spring Festival [46] 5. Cost and Profit - Cost and profit: The cost was lower year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. The profit was at a seasonally low level [51] 6. Inventory Side - Production and circulation inventory: The inventory was basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]