Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, the oversupply situation in the stainless - steel market continued, with weak market confidence. Traders and end - users mostly made purchases on demand, lacking the willingness to stock up actively, resulting in dull overall transactions. On the demand side, the real - estate market slump dragged down stainless - steel consumption in construction, decoration, household cookware, etc., leading to slow inventory depletion and a higher - than - usual inventory level, indicating insufficient end - user digestion capacity. On the cost side, abundant raw material imports from Indonesia and other places caused the nickel - iron price to decline, squeezing iron - mill profit margins and weakening cost support for stainless steel. Overall, under the combined effects of high supply, weak demand, and falling costs, stainless - steel prices are expected to continue their downward trend [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Key Points Summary: On November 21, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, down 2.20% week - on - week. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.17% week - on - week. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,290 yuan/ton, down 0.73% week - on - week. In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude - steel output was 3.0645 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 6.48% year - on - year. In October, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, down 2.27% month - on - month, and the cold - rolled output was 700,400 tons, down 4.16% month - on - month. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, down 6.80% year - on - year; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 billion square meters, down 19.60% year - on - year. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was + 21.2%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% week - on - week; the futures - warehouse receipt inventory was 70,400 tons, down 15,889 tons week - on - week. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 188,200 tons, 658,800 tons, and 224,800 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory down 0.17% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 82,400 tons, up 10.13% week - on - week, and the unloading volume was 77,900 tons, up 4.97% week - on - week. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, down 20 yuan/nickel week - on - week, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a loss of 134 yuan/nickel [11]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On November 21, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, down 2.20% week - on - week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.17% week - on - week. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,290 yuan/ton, down 0.73% week - on - week [17]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about 10 yuan higher than the main contract (+ 32); the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about 210 yuan higher than the main contract (+ 82). The trading volume was 244,050 lots, up 4.01% week - on - week [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was - 80 (+ 15), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was - 145 (+ 45) [23]. 3. Supply Side - In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude - steel output was 3.0645 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 6.48% year - on - year [27]. - In October, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, down 2.27% month - on - month; the cold - rolled output was 700,400 tons, down 4.16% month - on - month [30]. - In October, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 440,000 tons, up 2.33% month - on - month; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month [33]. - In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, down 21.54% month - on - month and 9.71% year - on - year; the cumulative net export volume from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 4. Demand Side - From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, down 6.80% year - on - year; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 billion square meters, down 19.60% year - on - year [40]. - In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was + 21.2% [43]. - In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, down 16.30% month - on - month and unchanged year - on - year; the automobile sales volume was 3.3221 million units, up 2.97% month - on - month and 8.82% year - on - year [46]. 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% week - on - week; the futures - warehouse receipt inventory was 70,400 tons, down 15,889 tons week - on - week [50]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 188,200 tons, 658,800 tons, and 224,800 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory down 0.17% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 82,400 tons, up 10.13% week - on - week, and the unloading volume was 77,900 tons, up 4.97% week - on - week [53]. 6. Cost Side - In October, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, down 23.50% month - on - month and up 11.81% year - on - year. The current nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 56.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.9976 million wet tons, down 0.64% week - on - week [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, down 20 yuan/nickel week - on - week, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a loss of 134 yuan/nickel [60]. - Last week, the chromium - ore quotation was 53 yuan per dry ton, down 1.5 yuan per dry ton week - on - week; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan per 50 - base ton, down 100 yuan per 50 - base ton week - on - week. In October, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 825,000 tons, up 1.54% month - on - month [63]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line was - 887 yuan/ton, and the profit margin was - 6.55% [66].
不锈钢周报 2025/11/22：镍铁价格崩塌，不锈钢持续下跌-20251122
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-22 13:28