Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in October showed a weakening in both supply and demand, with the overall situation declining compared to the third quarter. The demand-side momentum still needs to be strengthened. The subsequent impact of new policy-based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit on the fourth-quarter growth rate should be monitored. The social financing growth rate declined in October, and it may remain weak at the end of the year under the influence of the high base in the fourth quarter, the pressure on the real estate market, and the decline in government bond growth [13]. - In terms of funds, the tax payment period is approaching, and the maturity volume of interbank certificates of deposit is large. However, the central bank has increased the volume of repurchase operations, maintaining its attitude of protecting funds. Overall, the supply-demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Currently, the market is generally oscillating under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing impact of allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [13]. - From a fundamental perspective, the bond market has limited downward adjustment space. Looking forward, the capital side is expected to remain loose. With the increasing uncertainty of tariff disturbances and external demand, there is still pressure on economic growth stabilization. The direction of loose monetary policy and the adjustment trend of capital-intensive industries are still difficult to change. In the long term, the bond market should mainly adopt the idea of buying on dips [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Situation: In October, economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. The growth rate of industrial added value declined due to weak external demand, production structure adjustment under the "anti-involution" policy, and fewer working days. New policy-based financial instruments failed to fully offset the impact of the real estate downturn, and the power of demand recovery was insufficient. The export data in October was lower than expected, with a decline in exports to the United States and resilient growth in non-US regions. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals. Considering the high economic growth rate in the first three quarters, the pressure to achieve the goals this year is not large, and the policy side may focus more on the connection policies with next year. There is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US dollar liquidity is tight, and subsequent inflation and employment data should be observed for their indication of a December interest rate cut [10]. - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing. The net investment this week was 1.354 trillion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [13]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, up 0.81 BP week-on-week; the 30-year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.16%, up 1.20 BP week-on-week. The latest 10-year US Treasury bond yield was 4.06%, down 8.00 BP week-on-week [13]. - Summary: Fundamentally, the economic data in October was weak on both the supply and demand sides, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The demand-side momentum still needs to be strengthened. The subsequent impact of new policy-based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit on the fourth-quarter growth rate should be monitored. The social financing growth rate declined in October, and it may remain weak at the end of the year. In terms of funds, the tax payment period is approaching, and the maturity volume of interbank certificates of deposit is large. However, the central bank has increased the volume of repurchase operations, maintaining its attitude of protecting funds. Overall, the supply-demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Currently, the market is generally oscillating under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing impact of allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - T Contract Performance: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the T current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the T main contract [20]. - TL Contract Performance: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TL current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TL main contract [23]. - TF Contract Performance: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TF current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TF main contract [26]. - TS Contract Performance: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TS current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TS main contract [29]. - TS and TF Positions: Relevant charts show the closing price and position volume of the TS and TF contracts [33]. - T and TL Positions: Relevant charts show the closing price and position volume of the T and TL contracts [36]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - GDP and PMI: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, showing a differentiation between the manufacturing and service industries [41]. - Manufacturing PMI Sub - items: In October, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry were under pressure. The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 49.5%, with a larger decline than the new order index. The new order index continued to be below the boom-bust line, and the import index dropped to 46.8%, indicating insufficient domestic terminal consumption and investment demand [47]. - Price Index: In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, the core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI increased by 0.2%, the core CPI increased by 0.2%, and the PPI increased by 0.1%. The price of pork was weak due to sufficient supply, but the demand during the double festivals drove up the prices of vegetables and fruits. The year-on-year decline of the PPI narrowed [50]. - Export Data: In October 2025, China's import and export data was slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, and imports increased by 1.0% year-on-year. Exports to the United States decreased by 25.1% year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [53]. - Industrial Added Value and Social Consumption: In October, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The year-on-year growth rate of social consumption retail sales was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The growth rate of social consumption retail sales decreased due to the high base of durable goods such as cars and home appliances, but the growth rate of non-car consumption items improved [56]. - Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate: From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was -1.7%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment was -14.7%. In October, the month-on-month decline of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was 0.7%, and the year-on-year decline was 5.4% [59]. - Real Estate Construction and Sales: In October, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 490.61 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 19.8%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.52939 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 9.4%. The cumulative year-on-year decline of the completion - end data in October was 16.99%, and the new housing sales data in 30 large and medium - sized cities weakened recently [62][65]. Foreign Economy - US Economy: In the second quarter, the annualized current - price GDP of the United States was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with a real year-on-year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter-on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the unadjusted CPI in the United States increased by 3% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3% year-on-year. In August, the order amount of durable goods in the United States was 312.4 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.63%. The seasonally adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States was 48.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4 [68][71][74]. - European Economy: In the third quarter, the GDP of the European Union increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on - quarter. In October, the CPI in the eurozone increased by 2.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year. In November, the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone was 49.7, and the service industry PMI was 53.1 [74][77]. 4. Liquidity - Money Supply and Social Financing: In October, the growth rate of M1 was 6.2%, and the growth rate of M2 was 8.2%. The increment of social financing was 815 billion yuan, with a year-on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan. The growth rate of government bonds in the social financing sub - items slowed down, and the financing of the real - sector was weak. The growth rate of social financing in the household and enterprise sectors was 5.92%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 19.20% [82][85]. - Central Bank Operations: In October, the balance of MLF was 6.05 trillion yuan, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing. The net investment this week was 1.354 trillion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [88]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rate Changes: The table shows the changes in various market interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [91]. - Interest Rate Charts: Relevant charts show the trends of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and the yields of Treasury bonds in the UK, France, Germany, and Italy. There are also charts showing the Federal Reserve's target interest rate and exchange rates [94][96][97].
国债周报：风险偏好回落，债市震荡为主-20251122
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-22 13:27