锡周报：高价抑制下游需求，预计锡价震荡为主-20251122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Considering the inhibitory effect of high prices on tin consumption and the marginal relief of the shortage at the mine end, it is expected that tin prices will mainly fluctuate [11][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In October, the increment of imported tin concentrates in China was obvious, and the shortage of domestic raw material supply was slightly alleviated. In October, the import volume of tin ore and its concentrates was 11,632 physical tons (equivalent to about 4,938 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 15.74% and a month - on - month increase of 43.36%. The import volume from Myanmar was 2,367 tons (equivalent to about 861 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 43.64% and a month - on - month increase of 1.50%. The total import volume from other countries in October was 9,266 tons (equivalent to about 4,077 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 5.90% and a month - on - month increase of 57.05% [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow, and the export volume remains low. The raw material shortage of smelting enterprises in Yunnan still exists. The short - term operating rate is stable, but there is insufficient upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. In general, it is expected that the overall operating level of smelters in the two places will be difficult to further improve in the short term [12]. - Demand side: Although the consumption performance in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is a bit weak, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support tin prices. In the peak season, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight warming trend in October. The domestic integrated circuit output in October was 4.18 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. The short - term price increase is too large, and the downstream acceptance is limited, resulting in an obvious accumulation of inventory. This week, the total social inventory of tin ingots in major regions in China was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented [19]. 3.3. Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fee remains at a low level [26]. 3.4. Supply Side - The production of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is generally stable at a high level. The production recovery in Yunnan is obvious, while that in Jiangxi is a bit weak. The shortage of raw material supply is a common constraint for capacity release in both places [12][13]. - According to customs data, in October 2025, the physical volume of imported tin concentrates in China reached 11,632 tons, a slight increase from the previous month. The import volume of tin concentrates from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo has rebounded, and the overall volume meets expectations. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar decreased slightly in October, but it is expected to increase by more than 2,000 tons in November after the mining license is approved [12][13]. 3.5. Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and the global semiconductor sales maintain high growth [44]. - The tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline because aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [55]. - The operating rate of downstream solder enterprises showed a slight warming trend in October, and the domestic integrated circuit output in October was 4.18 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7% [12]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The total social inventory of tin ingots in major regions in China this week was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [12][13].