Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is relatively abundant. After the departure of the previous main long - position holders, the lead price is still oscillating within a wide range. Given the recent weak performance of major global financial assets, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.31% at 17,165 yuan/ton, with a total single - sided trading position of 75,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 17.5 to 1,997.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,075 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11] - Domestic Structure: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [11] - Industrial Data: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56% [11] 2. Primary Supply - Imports and Production: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17] - Total Supply: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total global lead ore production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19] - Inventory and Processing Fees: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - Smelting Start - up and Output: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - Raw Material Inventory and Output: At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's recycled lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33] - Net Exports and Total Supply: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - Battery Demand: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - Battery Exports: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16,145,200 units, and the net export weight of batteries was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43] - Inventory Changes: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45] - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand provide support for domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Balance: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - Overseas Balance: In August 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton [71] - Overseas Structure: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton [74] - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [77] - Position Analysis: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead turned to a large net short position. The net long position of LME lead investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance is bearish [80]
铅周报：冶炼高开工，铅价重回震荡区间-20251122
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-22 13:26