氧化铝周报 2025/11/22：宏观情绪偏弱，期价进一步下探-20251122

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Rainy - season shipping is gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production cut expectation is strengthening. Also, the overall non - ferrous sector is trending strongly, so the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - Futures Price: As of 3 p.m. on November 21, the alumina index fell 3.76% to 2737 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 0.1 million lots to 57.3 million lots. The Fed's hawkish stance and the unsolved alumina supply - surplus situation led to a further decline in alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was 2775 yuan/ton, with a premium of 71 yuan/ton over the December 12 contract. The spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 107 yuan/ton, and the weak spot made the near - month contract relatively weaker [11][24]. - Spot Price: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 15 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and increased by 5 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices were still under pressure [11][21]. - Inventory: Alumina's total social inventory increased by 4.3 million tons to 488.3 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 3.2 million tons, decreased by 2 million tons, increased by 3.7 million tons, and decreased by 0.6 million tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.27 million tons to 25.09 million tons; the delivery warehouse inventory was 25.58 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons from last week. The supply of circulating spot became looser, and the warehouse receipt registration volume further increased this week [11][68][70]. - Mineral End: Recently, domestic bauxite production has declined due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south. Domestic ore prices remain firm, but alumina plants' willingness to lower prices has increased due to shrinking profits. For imported ores, the shipping volume is stable, port inventory is rising, and ore prices are under further pressure after the rainy season [12]. - Supply Side: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 184.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.2 million tons from last week [12][43]. - Import and Export: As of November 21, the Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 41 yuan/ton. Overseas alumina prices have been fluctuating in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars recently, and the domestic spot price has been continuously declining, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss [12][50]. - Demand Side: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4456 million tons, the same as last month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [12][60]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - Spot Price: The decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed this week. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 15 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and increased by 5 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices were still under pressure [21]. - Futures Price and Basis: As of 3 p.m. on November 21, the alumina index fell 3.76% to 2737 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 0.1 million lots to 57.3 million lots. The Fed's hawkish stance and the unsolved alumina supply - surplus situation led to a further decline in alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was 2775 yuan/ton, with a premium of 71 yuan/ton over the December 12 contract. The spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 107 yuan/ton, and the weak spot made the near - month contract relatively weaker [24]. - Bauxite Price: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ores, the Guinea CIF price decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton to 71.5 US dollars/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at 68 US dollars/ton. After the impact of the rainy season in Guinea subsided, the ore shipping volume increased. The shrinking profit led to an enhanced willingness of alumina enterprises to lower prices. Coupled with the high port inventory, ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - Bauxite Production: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 477 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total production was 5052 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental policies, domestic bauxite production has been decreasing month by month [31]. - Bauxite Import: In October 2025, China imported 1377 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total import was 17140 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11% [33]. - Bauxite Import by Country: In October 2025, China imported 900 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative import from Guinea was 12743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, it declined and is expected to gradually recover later. In October 2025, China imported 382 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative import from Australia was 3160 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [35][37]. - Bauxite Inventory: In October, China's bauxite inventory increased by 24 million tons, with the total inventory reaching 5250 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises' ore inventory was sufficient. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 28 million tons, and that in Henan decreased by 36 million tons in October. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40]. - Alumina Production: In October 2025, alumina production was 796.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88% and a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative production was 7480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.03% [42]. - Alumina Operating Capacity: In October 2025, the alumina operating capacity was 9640 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.57% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. As of November 21, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 184.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.2 million tons from last week [43]. - Alumina Plant Profit: The alumina spot price has declined, and alumina plant profits are under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on November 21, in Guangxi, with the relatively low price of local domestic ores, the current production profit can reach 155 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinea ores in Shandong are 0 yuan/ton and 70 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The cost of transporting port - imported ores for inland alumina plants is about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the use of overseas ores in Shanxi and Henan has slightly turned into losses [46]. - Alumina Import and Export: In October 2025, the net alumina import was 1.36 million tons. The opening of the import window earlier drove the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 6 million tons last month to 18.93 million tons, and the export volume decreased from 24.64 million tons to 17.57 million tons. In the first ten months of 2025, the total net export was 143.75 million tons. As of November 21, the Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 41 yuan/ton. Overseas alumina prices have been fluctuating in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars recently, and the domestic spot price has been continuously declining, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss [48][50]. - Overseas Alumina Production: In October 2025, overseas alumina production was 541 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.84% and a month - on - month increase of 3.36%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative production was 5191 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.24% [52]. 3.4 Demand Side - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total production was 3687 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [57]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Rate: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4456 million tons, the same as last month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [60]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (including estimated values for November and December), showing data on alumina supply, demand, import, export, and the supply - demand difference for each month [63]. 3.6 Inventory - Social Inventory: Alumina's total social inventory increased by 4.3 million tons to 488.3 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 3.2 million tons, decreased by 2 million tons, increased by 3.7 million tons, and decreased by 0.6 million tons respectively [68]. - Futures Inventory: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.27 million tons to 25.09 million tons this week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 25.58 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons from last week. The supply of circulating spot became looser, and the warehouse receipt registration volume further increased this week [70].