铂族金属周报：价格在高位得到支撑-20251122

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum group metal prices are expected to be supported in the short - term following gold and silver prices, and the lease rates indicate that the fundamentals of platinum group metals remain strong. The prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and it is necessary to observe whether the Fed will form new monetary policy drivers in December [9] - NYMEX platinum is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile pattern, with limited further downward space. NYMEX palladium is expected to maintain a weak volatile pattern, and the probability of a strong performance in the short - term is low [12][15] 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - Price Changes: NYMEX platinum's active - contract closing price fell 2.25% to $1,523.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's active - contract closing price fell 2.16% to $1,384.5 per ounce this week [9] - Policy Impact: After New York Fed President Williams' dovish speech, the market's probability pricing for a 25 - basis - point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting rose to 70%. Platinum prices were supported at the $1,480 per ounce level [9] - Lease Rates: As of November 21, the one - month implied lease rate for platinum was 14.72%, and for palladium was 10.73%, both at the highest levels in the same period of the past five years [9] - Inventory Situation: As of November 21, CME platinum inventory was 19.12 tons, and palladium inventory was 5.39 tons, both at relatively high levels in recent years [9] 3.2. Market Review - Platinum Price: NYMEX platinum's active - contract price fell 2.25% to $1,523.4 per ounce, and the total position as of October 7 was 70,090 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price was 399.32 yuan per gram, and the domestic platinum premium significantly rebounded due to the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy [21][25] - Palladium Price: NYMEX palladium's active - contract price fell 2.16% to $1,384.5 per ounce, and the total position as of October 7 was 22,771 lots [22] - CFTC Net Positions: As of the reporting period on October 7, NYMEX platinum's managed - fund net long position was 18,487 lots, and NYMEX palladium's managed - fund net short position was 4,063 lots [34][37] 3.3. Inventory and ETF Position Changes - Platinum: As of November 21, the total platinum ETF position was 75.38 tons, and CME platinum inventory was 19.19 tons [48][55] - Palladium: As of November 21, the total palladium ETF position was 14.75 tons, and CME palladium inventory was 5,387.88 kilograms [51][60] 3.4. Supply and Demand - Platinum Supply: The total platinum output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. The output in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to reach 33.18 tons [66] - Palladium Supply: The total palladium output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024. The output in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be 41.36 tons [69] - Chinese Imports: China's platinum imports in September were 10.7 tons, showing a rebound from August. China's palladium imports in September were 6.5 tons, showing a significant increase from August [72][75] 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread: Relevant data on NYMEX platinum 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented [91] - NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread: Relevant data on NYMEX palladium 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented [103] - London Spot - NYMEX Spread: The spreads between London spot platinum and palladium prices and NYMEX prices are presented [105]