信用利差周度跟踪 20251122 ：利率平稳信用窄幅波动，民企地产利差继续抬升-20251122

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Interest rates are stable, credit bonds fluctuate within a narrow range, and the yields of 3Y and 7Y bonds decline slightly. The overall interest rate bonds are stable this week, with the yield of 1Y China Development Bank bonds rising 1BP from last week, 3Y bonds falling 1BP, and the yields of 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y bonds remaining flat. Credit bonds also fluctuate within a narrow range, with the yields of 3Y and 7Y varieties slightly declining [2][5]. - The change in urban investment bond spreads is limited, and the spreads of low - grade varieties decline slightly. The credit spreads of external rating AAA and AA + platforms are generally flat compared with last week, while the AA platform generally declines 1BP [2][9]. - The spreads of industrial bonds decline overall, while the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds continue to rise. The spreads of central and state - owned real - estate bonds decline by 0 - 1BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds rise 39BP, and the spreads of private real - estate bonds rise 49BP [2][19]. - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds fluctuate within a narrow range, and the 5Y medium - and low - grade varieties are relatively strong [2][26]. - The excess spreads of 3Y industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds rise, while those of 5Y bonds decline [2][28]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest rates are stable, credit bonds fluctuate within a narrow range, and the yields of 3Y and 7Y bonds decline slightly - Interest rate bonds are stable. The yield of 1Y China Development Bank bonds rises 1BP, 3Y bonds fall 1BP, and 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y bonds remain flat. Credit bonds also fluctuate narrowly, with 3Y and 7Y varieties seeing a slight decline in yields. The yields of 1Y credit bonds of all grades remain flat; most 3Y credit bonds decline 1 - 2BP, with AA grade remaining flat; the yield of 5Y AAA - grade credit bonds rises 3BP, AA + grade rises 1BP, AA grade remains flat, and AA - grade falls 1BP; the yield of 7Y credit bonds falls 1BP; the yield of 10Y credit bonds rises 1BP [2][5]. - In terms of credit spreads, the spreads of 1Y credit bonds of all grades decline 1BP; the spreads of 3 - 5Y bonds fluctuate in line with yields; the 7Y spreads decline 1BP; the 10Y spreads remain flat [2][5]. 2. The change in urban investment bond spreads is limited, and the spreads of low - grade varieties decline slightly - Overall, the spreads of urban investment bonds change little this week, with low - grade varieties showing a slight decline. The credit spreads of external rating AAA and AA + platforms are generally flat compared with last week, while the AA platform generally declines 1BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, prefecture - level, and district - level platforms are generally flat compared with last week. Specifically, the spreads of most provincial platforms change by no more than 1BP, with Shanxi falling 2BP; most prefecture - level platforms remain flat or decline 1 - 2BP, with Guizhou falling 8BP, Yunnan falling 6BP, and Jilin and Xinjiang rising 1BP; most district - level platforms remain flat or decline 1 - 2BP, with Guizhou rising 3BP [9][17]. 3. The spreads of industrial bonds decline overall, while the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds continue to rise - The spreads of industrial bonds decline overall, but the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds continue to rise. This week, the spreads of central and state - owned real - estate bonds decline 0 - 1BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds rise 39BP, and the spreads of private real - estate bonds rise 49BP [2][19]. - The spreads of AAA - grade coal bonds decline 2BP, while those of other grades remain flat; the spreads of all grades of steel bonds decline 1BP; the spreads of AAA - grade chemical bonds remain flat, and AA + grade declines 3BP [19]. 4. Tier 2 and perpetual bonds fluctuate within a narrow range, and the 5Y medium - and low - grade varieties are relatively strong - This week, the yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds fluctuate within a narrow range, and the 5Y medium - and low - grade varieties are relatively strong. Specifically, the yield of 1Y AAA - grade Tier 2 and perpetual bonds rises 1BP, the yield of AA + - grade bonds rises 0 - 1BP, and the spreads are generally flat; the yield of AA - grade bonds falls 0 - 1BP, and the spreads compress 1BP [2][26]. - For 3Y bonds, the yield of AAA - grade Tier 2 bonds rises 1BP, the yield of AA + - grade bonds falls 1BP, and the AA grade remains unchanged, with the spreads rising 0 - 2BP; the yields of AA + and above - grade perpetual bonds rise 1 - 2BP, and the spreads rise 2 - 3BP, while the yield of AA - grade bonds falls 1BP, and the spreads remain flat [26]. - For 5Y bonds, the yield of AAA - grade Tier 2 capital bonds rises 2BP, the yields of AA + and below - grade bonds fall 1 - 4BP, the yields of AA + and above - grade perpetual bonds rise 1BP, and the AA grade falls 1BP. The spread changes of each grade and variety are consistent with the yield changes [26]. 5. The excess spreads of 3Y industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds rise, while those of 5Y bonds decline - This week, the excess spread of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds rises 0.35BP to 15.14BP, reaching the 42.26% quantile since 2015, and the excess spread of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds falls 0.49BP to 11.90BP, reaching the 23.84% quantile since 2015 [2][28]. - The excess spread of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds rises 1.46BP to 6.81BP, reaching the 10.49% quantile; the excess spread of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds falls 2.00BP to 8.97BP, reaching the 7.85% quantile [28]. 6. Explanation of the compilation of the credit spread database - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on the data of ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D Center of Cinda Securities, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [33]. - The credit spread of industrial and urban investment individual bonds = the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of the individual bond - the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bond (calculated by the linear interpolation method), and finally the credit spread of the industry or regional urban investment is obtained by the arithmetic average method [35]. - The excess spread of bank Tier 2 capital bonds/perpetual bonds = the credit spread of bank Tier 2 capital bonds/perpetual bonds - the credit spread of bank ordinary bonds of the same grade and term. The excess spread of industrial/urban investment - type perpetual bonds = the credit spread of industrial/urban investment - type perpetual bonds - the credit spread of medium - term notes of the same grade and term [35]. - Both industrial and urban investment bonds select samples of medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it will be excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds are externally rated by the issuer, while commercial banks use the ChinaBond implied bond - item rating [35].