橡胶周报：橡胶震荡偏强-20251122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market logic shows that bulls are mainly driven by the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The exchange inventory is low. Bears mainly base their view on the weak actual demand, the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire [19]. - The rubber price still has opportunities for long - position trading on pullbacks. In the short term, wait for the price to stabilize and then consider short - term long positions. Also, pay attention to the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609, as there may be opportunities for adding positions again and waiting for the right time for swing trading [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the week of October 18, 2025, the report indicated positive factors such as a significant increase in the rainfall forecast in Thailand, positive expectations from the China - US talks, and the EUDR利好, which led to a significant increase of nearly 800 yuan in the rubber price. Subsequently, the driving force for the price increase diminished, and the price oscillated and corrected. In the week of November 1, 2025, and the morning reports from November 5 - 7, short - term long opportunities during the price correction were suggested [10]. - Around mid - November, about 10 - 11 tons of rubber warehouse receipts were expected to expire and be taken out of storage, which would significantly reduce the exchange's rubber inventory and warehouse receipts. Low inventory is likely to attract the attention of bulls [10]. - By November 21, 2025, the impact of the typhoon on the rainfall forecast weakened marginally, reducing the positive supply factors [10]. - The EUDR's implementation time has been postponed again. This postponement will cause a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative factor for demand. However, the proposal released on October 21, 2025, is a marginal positive factor, but the positive expectation is not significant [14]. - The rubber throwing storage of 62,000 tons on September 25, 2025, is judged to be a short - term negative factor and a medium - term positive factor because it is a replacement storage [15]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [31]. - The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while the Chinese demand remains stable [36]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [39]. 3.3. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, and other commodities are generally normal, with no special or notable values [47][54]. - The prices of rubber and black commodities move in a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [50]. 3.4. Cost End - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is between 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [58]. - The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost decreases [58]. 3.5. Demand End - The operating rate of all - steel tires in tire factories is 61.31% (-3.19%), showing a downward trend. The demand for all - steel tires is normal, while the peak of the rush - export of semi - steel tires to Europe has passed, and the demand is expected to weaken [19]. - The demand from the middle - stream industry: the prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the demand for supporting tires is expected to recover gradually. The export of tires is highly prosperous, but it is expected to decline slightly in the future [67][70]. 3.6. Supply End - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no special or notable values in production, consumption, export, and import data [75][79][82]. - In September 2025, the rubber production was 1,141,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The cumulative production was 8,170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33% [105]. - The production and export data of major rubber - producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and China in September 2025 are provided, along with their year - on - year and month - on - month changes [105][106].