PVC周报：反倾销政策或取消，PVC出口压力减小-20251122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The PVC market currently has a supply - demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand. Although the expected cancellation of anti - dumping policies may reduce export pressure to India, it is still difficult to reverse the situation of over - supply. In the short term, valuations have declined to a low level, but they cannot support the current supply - demand situation. In the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2425 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Chlor - alkali integrated profit is continuously declining, and ethylene - based profit is at a low level, with a currently neutral - to - low valuation [11]. - Supply: PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.8%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 81.3%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 73.1%, down 0.1% month - on - month. Supply load increased slightly last week, and is expected to further recover next week. November's overall load is expected to remain high, with multiple new units starting trial production, resulting in continuous high supply pressure [11]. - Demand: The revocation of India's BIS certification policy has little impact on the current export fundamentals. The expected non - implementation of anti - dumping duties will reduce the pressure of exporting to India at the end of the year. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The pipe loading is 40.2%, down 0.4% month - on - month; the film loading is 71.1%, unchanged month - on - month; the profile loading is 36.3%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 49.2%, down 0.3% month - on - month, and the downstream is about to enter the off - season. Last week, PVC pre - sales volume was 67.6 tons, down 2.3 tons week - on - week [11]. - Inventory: Last week, factory inventory was 31.5 tons, down 0.7 tons week - on - week; social inventory was 103.3 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week; total inventory was 134.8 tons, down 0.2 tons week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. It is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. Even if the export pressure to India is alleviated, due to the weak domestic demand, it is difficult to absorb the increasing production, and inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the magnitude may improve [11]. - Summary: Fundamentally, corporate comprehensive profits are at a low level for the year, with short - term valuation pressure being small. However, there are few maintenance activities on the supply side, and production is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple new units will start trial production. Domestically, the downstream is about to enter the off - season, and demand is under pressure. Exports are expected to maintain a high volume to India, but it is still difficult to absorb the excess capacity. The calcium carbide on the cost side is weak, and caustic soda prices are falling. In the medium term, after the new units are put into operation, the supply - demand situation is poor, and real - estate demand continues to decline. It is necessary to rely on export growth or the elimination of old units to absorb the domestic excess capacity [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets The report presents multiple charts including PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [15][16][18][25][27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory The report shows charts of PVC factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, social inventory total inventory, warehouse receipts, and various profit charts, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [32][33][35][39][43]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices have a slight increase. The report provides charts of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, semi - coke price, liquid caustic soda price, liquid chlorine price, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [49][50][51][54]. 3.5 Supply Side In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The report lists specific PVC production capacity expansion plans in 2025, including new plants such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical, with a total planned production capacity of 250 tons per year [59][64]. 3.6 Demand Side The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC are declining marginally and gradually entering the off - season. The report also shows charts of PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [75][76][78][81][83][85].