油脂周报：棕榈油高频数据较差施压油脂-20251122

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The high - yield of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. The current situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply in the short - term may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high - yield does not persist, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains high - yield, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view the market with an oscillatory perspective and turn to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Overview: This week, the three major oils showed weak trends. Palm oil was still underweighted by foreign investors, and long positions in other oils also decreased. High - frequency data from palm oil producing areas were average. From November 1st to 15th, Malaysian palm oil yield increased by 1.82% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.43%, and production grew by 4.09%. High - frequency exports from November 1st to 20th decreased by 14.1% - 20.5%. Rapeseed oil stocks continued to decline due to the shutdown of most coastal oil mills, but the supply from Russia and Australia limited its upside. Soybean oil mainly followed the market's oscillations [11] - International Oils: Based on normal production levels and international demand in previous years, palm oil will enter a rapid de - stocking phase in the first quarter of next year. However, this year's production in Malaysia and Indonesia is larger than the same period last year, and the first quarter is a low - demand season. If Southeast Asian palm oil production remains high, the expected de - stocking may reverse [11] - Domestic Oils: This week, the spot basis of domestic oils was stable. Total domestic oil stocks continued to decline, with sufficient supply. As soybean crushing decreased due to lower arrivals, soybean oil production declined. Rapeseed oil stocks continued to decline due to low imports, and palm oil stocks remained stable due to low imports [11] - Viewpoint Summary: The high - yield of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. The short - term inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high - yield does not persist, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains high - yield, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view the market with an oscillatory perspective and turn to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents the basis and seasonal basis charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil, the 01 contract price, and the spot price of different regions, to show the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][20][22][24] 3. Supply Side - Production and Exports: The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil to reflect the supply situation of different oils [27][28][29][31] - Weather in Palm - producing Areas: The report presents the weighted precipitation charts of Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas and the NINO 3.4 index chart, which may affect palm oil production [33][34] 4. Profit and Inventory - Total Inventory: The report shows the total inventory chart of domestic three major oils and the inventory chart of Indian imported vegetable oils [40] - Inventory of Different Oils: It includes the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and major oil mill inventory of soybean oil, the coastal spot average crushing profit and commercial inventory of rapeseed oil, and the palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia [43][45][46][48] 5. Cost Side - Palm Oil Cost: The report shows the reference price chart of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price chart of Malaysian palm oil [50][52] - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost: It includes the CNF import price chart of rapeseed oil and the import cost price chart of rapeseed [54] 6. Demand Side - Oil Transactions: The report shows the cumulative transaction volume charts of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [57] - Biodiesel Profit: It presents the POGO spread chart (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread chart (soybean oil - heating oil) to reflect the profit situation of biodiesel [59]