蛋白粕周报 2025/11/22：南美播种顺利施压盘面-20251122
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-22 14:02
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, with total production now almost equal to total demand. Supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, suggesting the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. - Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a multi - year high, and soybean meal inventory is large, pressuring crushing margins. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range with cost support and pressured crushing margins [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Soybeans: This week, US soybeans reached the cost level of 1170 cents per bushel and then pulled back. The global soybean supply reduction is limited, and the global soybean stock - to - use ratio remains high. Brazilian soybean premium quotes declined slightly this week, reducing the cost of imported soybeans in China. As of November 21, the January US soybean contract was at 1126.5 cents per bushel, and the Brazilian January premium was 145 cents per bushel. The November USDA forecast further reduced the global new - crop soybean production by about 4 million tons, mainly due to cuts in India, Ukraine, and the US. After the November adjustment, the USDA estimates that the 25/26 global soybean production and consumption are nearly equal, and the supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean stock - to - use ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%, providing a bottom support but not enough for a highly profitable CBOT soybean planting market [9]. - Domestic Double - Meal: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated, and the basis also fluctuated. The futures market followed cost changes, and the oil mills' crushing margins on the futures market declined. Domestic soybean meal sales were decent, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Feed companies' inventory days were 7.98 days, slightly lower than the same period last year and down 0.25 days from the previous period. As of November 18, institutional statistics showed 9.2 million tons of soybean purchases in August, 8.76 million tons in September, 7.73 million tons in October, and 6.51 million tons in November. Current purchase progress indicates that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline. Coupled with the high - level提货, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9]. - Trading Strategy: The unilateral strategy for soybean meal is to expect range - bound trading [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Prices: Provided historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2021 - 2025 [17][18]. - Basis of Main Contracts: Provided historical data charts of the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21]. - Spreads: Provided historical data charts of various spreads, such as the soybean meal 01 - 05 spread, 03 - 05 spread, 11 - 1 spread, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01 spread [22][23]. - Fund Positions: Provided historical data charts of the net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: Provided historical data charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate from 2021 - 2025 [31][32]. - Weather Conditions: Provided precipitation forecasts for Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing regions until November 29, 2025, and analyzed the possible occurrence of La Nina from October 2025 to January 2026 and its impact on climate [34][36]. - US Soybean Export Progress: Provided historical data charts of the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed with China in the current marketing year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative value of US soybean exports to China in the current market year [48][49]. - China's Oilseed Imports: Provided historical data charts of monthly soybean and rapeseed imports and forecasts in China from 2021 - 2025 [51][52]. - China's Oil Mill Crushing: Provided historical data charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [53][54]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: Provided historical data charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China from 2021 - 2025 [57][58]. - Protein Meal Inventory: Provided historical data charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecasts of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills in China from 2021 - 2025 [60][61]. - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: Provided historical data charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseed in coastal areas from 2021 - 2025 [62][63]. 3.5 Demand Side - Soybean Meal Demand: Provided historical data charts of the cumulative sales volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal in China [65]. - Breeding Profit: Provided historical data charts of the average profit per head of self - bred and self - raised pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2021 - 2025 [66][67].