国信期货2026年投资策略报告：稳经济稳预期，股债双震荡-20251123

Industry Investment Rating No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Views - In 2025, China's economic recovery slowed down, with a reduced drag from the real estate sector. The domestic economy faced issues such as unbalanced employment, low consumer income expectations, and sluggish consumption growth. The economic policy shifted towards new - quality productivity to improve economic quality. Externally, Trump's tariff war hindered global trade, and geopolitical issues in some regions persisted. In 2026, domestic economic policies will focus more on the domestic cycle, aiming to repair the balance sheets of residents and private enterprises and stabilize market confidence [2][79][80]. - Different stock indices have different outlooks. The sentiment scores of IH, IF, IC, and IM are 1.7, 7.6, - 7.2, and 15.3 respectively, indicating that IH is slightly optimistic, IF is relatively optimistic, IC is slightly pessimistic, and IM is quite optimistic [3][82]. - Interest rates have shown a trend of first tightening and then loosening. In 2026, as the economy moves towards new - quality productivity, the role of price - based tools will be reduced, interest rates will remain low, and government bonds will shift from high - level to volatile [4][83]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Stock Market Structural Bull Market - After the registration - system reform, the supply of the domestic stock market increased significantly. In 2025, the domestic stock market showed an index bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high of 4034.08 on November 13. The number of listed companies increased slightly, with a net increase of 32 compared to the previous year [5]. - From the perspective of the market cycle, the domestic stock market experienced a decline in 2023 - 2024 and then rebounded in 2024 - 2025. After April 2025, with the implementation of measures to stabilize the stock market, the market gradually recovered, and trading volume remained stable [12]. 2. Gradual Economic Recovery 2.1 Overall Economic Recovery - Since 2023, China's economy has gradually recovered after the normalization of the COVID - 19 situation, but the recovery strength has been weak. In 2025, the GDP growth rate showed a certain degree of fluctuation, with the first - quarter growth rate at 5.4%, the second - quarter at 5.2%, and the third - quarter at 4.8% [16]. - There were differences in the recovery of different industries. The growth rate of the primary industry showed a slight upward trend, the secondary industry gradually declined, and the tertiary industry had a relatively good recovery effect [18][19]. 2.2 Significant Difference between Domestic Demand and Foreign Trade - Exports increased in 2025, with a peak of $3285.65 billion in September. Imports slightly decreased, and the cumulative year - on - year in 2025 was negative, indicating weak domestic demand [21]. - Domestic consumption was persistently sluggish. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales fluctuated, and the year - on - year growth rate first increased and then decreased in 2025 [25]. - The number of new urban jobs continued to increase, with 1057000 new jobs in September 2025. The urban survey unemployment rate was relatively stable, generally between 5% - 5.2% [26]. 2.3 Economic Structural Imbalance - Extreme Differences between Upstream and Downstream - Since 2021, due to factors such as the overseas epidemic, supply - chain disruptions, and domestic supply - side reforms, the prices of upstream industrial products soared, putting pressure on downstream industries. After 2021, the growth rate of industrial product prices gradually declined, and in 2025, the negative growth rate of PPI narrowed [32][34]. - Production materials and living materials showed different trends. Production materials entered a deflationary stage, while the price of living materials PPI gradually declined. There were also significant differences in PPI within production materials, with upstream industries showing extreme price increases and mid - downstream industries having poor price transmission [35][39]. - CPI showed different trends in different periods. In 2025, most months had negative values, and core CPI improved in the second half of the year, indicating that the consumer side was gradually improving [45][46]. 3. Strong Monetary Policy and Active Fiscal Policy - From October 2023 to October 2024, the central bank adopted a series of monetary policy measures, including adjusting the deposit - reserve ratio, interest rates, and conducting open - market operations. In September 2024, the monetary policy intensity increased significantly, including significant reserve - requirement ratio cuts, interest - rate cuts, and the introduction of new policy tools [53]. - The real - estate market has experienced a decline since 2021. In 2025, the sales area of commercial housing continued to decline, and residents' willingness to invest in real estate was low, which dragged down the economic recovery [55]. - In 2024 - 2025, the domestic monetary policy remained loose, with abundant liquidity and a downward - trending interest rate. The yield of government bonds showed a certain degree of volatility, and the weighted average interest rate of financial - institution RMB loans continued to decline [61][62]. - The new RMB loans showed large fluctuations from 2020 to 2025, with a strong dependence on policies. The growth rate of the broad - money supply M2 decreased in 2024 and rebounded slightly in 2025 [72][74]. 4. New - Quality Productivity in the Economy, Both Stocks and Bonds Turn Volatile - Different industries have different outlooks. The banking sector in the financial industry is neutral, the consumer industry is pessimistic, the industrial industry is neutral, the infrastructure and public - utility industries are optimistic, and the information - technology industry is optimistic [81]. - Different stock indices have different sentiment scores. IH is slightly optimistic, IF is relatively optimistic, IC is slightly pessimistic, and IM is quite optimistic [3][82]. - In 2026, as the economy moves towards new - quality productivity, interest rates will remain low, and government bonds will shift from high - level to volatile [83].