国信期货2026年投资策略报告：郑棉开局不易终局可期-20251123

Report Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Globally in the 2025/26 cotton season, supply increases with major producers maintaining high levels, consumption is expected to see slight growth, and trade policies and Fed's interest - rate cuts will impact cotton prices, which are expected to fluctuate widely [2][55]. - In the domestic market for the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply significantly increases, new - cotton costs change little, textile enterprise inventories are at a healthy level, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [3][56]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - ICE Cotton Futures: The annual trend is divided into two stages. From the beginning of the year to the end of September, it was in a wide - range weak oscillation. From October to the end of the year, it further weakened due to macro - negatives and weak fundamentals [5][6]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Futures: The annual trend has four stages. It oscillated and then dropped rapidly from the beginning of the year to early April, rebounded from mid - April to mid - July, oscillated from mid - July to late September, and weakened again from late September to the end of the year [7][8]. 2. International Market Analysis - Global Supply - Demand: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand situation is slightly looser. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 63.9%, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024/25. Production rises by 300,000 tons, consumption increases slightly by 90,000 tons, and ending inventory increases by 390,000 tons [13]. - US Cotton: The USDA raised the 2025/26 production forecast to 14.12 million bales, up 900,000 bales from the September report. Exports are expected to increase to 1.22 million bales, and ending inventory is up 20% to 4.3 million bales. Good weather led to a significant increase in yield [15][16]. - Brazilian Cotton: The USDA's November report shows a production forecast of 4.09 million tons, up 110,000 tons month - on - month, and exports are expected to reach 3.16 million tons. Although Brazilian cotton exports were strong in the first three quarters of 2025, future exports may face more competition [22][23]. - Indian Cotton: The 2025/26 initial inventory is expected to rise to about 1.03 million tons, a 55% increase. Production is expected to be 5.19 million tons, down 130,000 tons. Domestic consumption is expected to slow to 5.1 million tons. With sufficient supply and increased imports, exports may increase [25][26]. - Global Economy: The global economy is showing signs of a mild slow - down. The Fed is in an easing cycle, and there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in 2026. Tariff policies may lead to a re - structuring of the global textile supply chain [29][30]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis - Supply - Demand: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production is expected to reach 7.3 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.18 million tons, and consumption is slightly lower than the previous year. Overall, the supply - demand situation is slightly looser [31]. - Production and Cost: The USDA estimates the 2025/26 cotton production at 7.3 million tons, while domestic estimates are higher at 7.42 million tons. New - cotton costs are relatively low, with the average machine - picked cotton seed - cotton purchase price in Xinjiang between 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg [35][36]. - Imports: It is expected that imports in the 2025/26 season will increase slightly to 1.2 million tons. The reduction of tariffs on US cotton imports from 25% to 15% is expected to promote imports [40]. - Textile Industry: Since the second half of 2025, the textile industry has been relatively healthy, with a decrease in pure - cotton yarn inventory and an increase in the industry's prosperity index. In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic sales of textiles and clothing continued to grow moderately [45][46]. - Exports: In 2025, the export of textiles and clothing faced complex situations. With the narrowing of the effective tax - rate gap between China and Southeast Asian countries, direct exports to the US are expected to increase significantly in 2026 [50][51]. 4. Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - International Market: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply increases, consumption may see slight growth, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to trade - policy changes [55]. - Domestic Market: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply increases, new - cotton costs change little, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [56].