政策预期或升温，长债震荡转弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there are more negative factors in the market. It is recommended to shift from an oscillatory mindset to a moderately bearish one. The probability of the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies at the end of the year is increasing, and the stock market's performance has suppressed the bond market. The bond market may turn from oscillation to a downward trend, and long - term bonds will be weaker than short - term ones [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - This Week's Trend Review: From November 17 - 23, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Influenced by factors such as changes in US interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, stock - market trends, and policy news, the bond market showed different trends on each trading day. As of November 21, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.448, 105.855, 108.440, and 115.590 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.002, + 0.005, + 0.050, and - 0.480 yuan compared to the previous weekend [11] - Next Week's Outlook: Policy expectations are likely to rise. The long - term bonds may change from oscillation to a weaker trend. It is necessary to closely monitor policy - expectation changes. The stock - market decline may not necessarily drive up treasury bonds. Long - term bonds will perform worse than short - term ones, and the 30Y - 10Y spread is expected to widen slightly [12][13][14] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - Primary Market: This week, 76 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 4865.29 billion yuan and a net financing of 3431.71 billion yuan, down 2403.37 billion yuan and 471.51 billion yuan respectively from last week. The issuance of local - government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased compared to last week [17] - Secondary Market: Treasury - bond yields showed a differentiated trend. As of November 21, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.17bp, + 0.56bp, + 0.81bp, and + 1.20bp respectively. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads all widened [20] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Prices, Trading Volume, and Open Interest: Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. As of November 21, the trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased by 16241, 34025, 46731, and 37790 lots respectively compared to last week, while the open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year decreased, and that of 30 - year increased slightly [31][34] - Basis and IRR: The current basis levels of each variety are not high. With the increasing risk of bond - market adjustment, it is recommended to moderately focus on short - hedging strategies, especially using TL for short - hedging [38] - Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads: As of November 21, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures changed compared to last week. If the bond market weakens next week, the inter - delivery spreads may widen slightly [42][43] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - The central bank's open - market operations achieved a net injection of 1354 billion yuan this week, and a net injection of 1234 billion yuan including treasury - cash. As of November 21, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week changed compared to last week. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased compared to last week [48][49][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - As of November 21, the US dollar index rose 0.87% to 100.1527, the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds dropped 8BP to 4.06%, and the 10Y Sino - US Treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 223.9BP [58] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial - product prices and agricultural - product prices both declined. As of November 21, the Nanhua Industrial Index, Metal Index, and Energy - Chemical Index decreased compared to last week, and the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also decreased [63] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - Unilateral Strategy: The bond market may turn from oscillation to a downward trend. It is recommended to focus on short - term short - selling strategies for long - term varieties [18] - Cash - and - Carry Strategy: It is recommended to moderately focus on short - hedging strategies, especially for long - term varieties [18] - Yield - Curve Strategy: As the market weakens, the yield curve will steepen. It is recommended to moderately focus on strategies such as shorting TL and going long on 3T [18] - Inter - delivery Strategy: The current inter - delivery spreads are oscillating and may widen slightly in the next few days [18]