Huachuang Securities·2025-11-23 04:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Shenhua (601088) with a target price of 49.86 CNY [2][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 213.15 billion CNY for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 39.05 billion CNY, down 9.98% year-on-year [2][9]. - The integrated operations of the company demonstrate strong resilience, with a significant increase in long-term contract sales, accounting for approximately 92.5% of total sales [9]. - The price of thermal coal has shown a strong upward trend, with the latest price at 831.00 CNY per ton, reflecting a 23.5% increase from the average price in Q3 [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 75.04 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.51% [2][9]. - The net profit for Q3 was 14.41 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.24% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.54% [2][9]. - The company’s total revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 303.35 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [4][9]. Operational Highlights - The coal production and sales figures for Q3 were 85.50 million tons and 111.60 million tons respectively, with production increasing by 2.27% year-on-year while sales decreased by 3.46% [9]. - The company has made significant investments in expanding its capacity, including new power generation projects and coal mining operations [9]. - The gross profit margins for various segments in 2025 Q1-3 were reported as follows: coal at 30.5%, electricity at 19.2%, and coal chemical at 7.1% [9].