投顾晨报：防守策略生效，布局窗口将现-20251123

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a defensive strategy in the current market environment, suggesting that investors should consider gradual positioning in sectors benefiting from marginal improvements in economic conditions in 2025 [2][3] - A significant rebalancing has occurred in global stock markets, with funds shifting from previously high-performing technology sectors to relatively undervalued sectors such as resources, consumption, and manufacturing [2][3] - The report highlights the positive outlook for mid-cap blue-chip companies in the machinery sector, driven by both policy support and fundamental improvements [5] Market Strategy - The current market is characterized by a "stable internal and external" dynamic, with technology assets experiencing a pullback due to concerns over an "AI bubble" [2][3] - Investors are advised to focus on mid-cap blue-chip companies in sectors like non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, and machinery, which have shown improved capital returns in Q3 [2][3] - Suggested ETFs for investment include the Consumer ETF (159928) and Infrastructure 50 ETF (516970/159635) [2][3] Industry Strategy - The machinery industry is expected to benefit from a dual drive of policy and fundamental support, with a focus on nurturing quality enterprises and specialized industrial clusters [5] - The forklift industry saw a 14.2% year-on-year increase in sales from January to October 2025, with exports rising by 15.5%, indicating a recovery in both domestic and international demand [5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance, providing opportunities for companies with advantages in hydraulic components and five-axis machine tools to capture both traditional equipment upgrades and emerging market opportunities [5] Theme Strategy - The report discusses the launch of Nano2, which introduces a reasoning-driven visual generation capability, marking a shift from diffusion-based generation to a more intelligent image generation paradigm [6] - Companies with a comprehensive AI pathway, integrating hardware, research, models, and application scenarios, are expected to benefit significantly from advancements in AI applications [6] - Relevant ETFs for this theme include the Media ETF (512980/159805) and the China Concept Internet ETF (513220/159605) [6]