Guohai Securities·2025-11-23 07:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (1024.HK) [1][13] Core Insights - Kuaishou's core business performance remains robust, driven by AI empowerment, with a projected revenue growth of 14.2% year-on-year for Q3 2025 [6][8] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting revenues of RMB 1,428 billion, RMB 1,574 billion, and RMB 1,719 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 208 billion, RMB 234 billion, and RMB 261 billion [11][12] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - For Q3 2025, Kuaishou reported revenue of RMB 355.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.4% [6] - The gross margin stood at 54.7%, with an operating profit of RMB 52.99 billion and a net profit of RMB 44.89 billion [6] User Engagement - The platform's user growth strategy and AI algorithm upgrades have led to a steady user performance, with Monthly Active Users (MAU) and Daily Active Users (DAU) reaching 731 million and 416 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2.4% and 2.1% [8] - Daily active users spent an average of 134.1 minutes on the platform, with total usage time increasing by 3.6% year-on-year [8] Financial Metrics - The company achieved an adjusted net profit of RMB 49.86 billion for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [8] - The adjusted net profit margin was 14%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] Business Segments - Online marketing services revenue grew by 14.0% year-on-year to RMB 201 billion, with AI being a significant growth driver [8] - E-commerce and other business revenues increased by 41.3% year-on-year to RMB 59 billion, with e-commerce GMV growing by 15.2% to RMB 3,850 billion [8] - Live streaming revenue saw a 2.5% year-on-year increase to RMB 96 billion, supported by content supply optimization and AI technology [8] Future Projections - The report projects a target market capitalization of RMB 3,462 billion for 2026, with a target price of HKD 80 and HKD 88 [11][12] - The expected adjusted PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12, 11, and 10 respectively [11]