钢价上行仍可期，板块配置正当时

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector experienced a decline of 7.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as long products down by 9.67% and flat products down by 7.38% [2][10] - Despite current supply-demand challenges and overall profit decline, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3][2] - The report suggests that the steel industry is likely to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation, with a focus on high-margin specialty steel companies and leading firms with strong cost control [3][2] Supply Situation - As of November 21, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 88.6%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - The production of five major steel products reached 7.412 million tons, an increase of 2.08% week-on-week [2][25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.942 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.90% [2][30] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 100,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.24% week-on-week [2][35] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.01% week-on-week to 10.294 million tons, while factory inventory also saw a decline of 2.95% to 4.037 million tons [2][43] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,438.3 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.47% [2][49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was -30 CNY/ton, while the profit for electric arc furnace-produced construction steel was -112 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 27.74% [2][55] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 793 CNY/ton, up by 0.89% week-on-week [2][72] - The price for coking coal at the main stockpile in Jingtang Port was 1,790 CNY/ton, down by 40 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][72] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and those with strong competitive advantages in raw material supply [3][2]