Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-23 08:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [2][3]. Core Insights - The IEA projects that under the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), oil demand will steadily increase, reaching 105 million barrels per day by 2035 and 113 million barrels per day by 2050, with an average annual growth of approximately 500,000 barrels per day [2][3]. - In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), oil demand is expected to peak around 2030, with a forecasted decline to 100 million barrels per day by 2035, averaging a decrease of about 200,000 barrels per day from 2035 to 2050 [2][7]. - The report highlights that the growth in oil demand will primarily occur in emerging markets and developing economies, with India leading the demand increase, projected to rise from 5.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 8 million barrels per day by 2035 [4][7]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of November 21, Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.56 per barrel, a decrease of 2.84% from the previous week, while WTI futures fell by 3.38% to $58.06 per barrel [16]. - The report notes a trend of widening supply-demand dynamics in crude oil, with expectations of downward pressure on prices, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support are likely to maintain prices at moderate to high levels [2][16]. Refining Sector - The report indicates that the Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $26.66 per barrel, up by $2.44 from the previous week [53]. - The domestic refining product price differentials have improved, suggesting a potential for enhanced profitability as economic recovery progresses [50][53]. Polyester Sector - The report observes a tightening supply-demand balance in the downstream polyester sector, with expectations for improved market conditions, particularly for high-quality companies in the polyester filament sector [11]. - The PTA price has shown an upward trend, with the average price in East China reaching 4626.8 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.90% increase [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester filament sector, such as Tongkun Co., and bottle-grade companies like Wankai New Materials [11]. - It also suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures and competitive advantages [11]. - For upstream exploration and development, companies like CNOOC and Haiyou Engineering are highlighted as having strong growth prospects [11].