Soochow Securities·2025-11-23 08:03Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal prices are stable, with the spot price for thermal coal at 834 RMB/ton as of November 21, 2025, showing no change from the previous week [1] - Supply side: The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region is 2.0463 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons or 3.50% from the previous week [1] - Demand side: The average daily outflow from the same ports is 1.78 million tons, a decrease of 94,400 tons or 5.04% from the previous week, indicating limited demand release [1] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has increased to 25.933 million tons, up by 1.64 million tons or 6.74% from the previous week [1] - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the heating season in northern regions and increasing electricity consumption in southern regions [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,834.89 points, down 3.45% from the previous week, while the coal sector index fell by 7.12% [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector was 82.296 billion RMB, an increase of 2.08% from the previous week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with specific prices reported as follows: - Datong South Suburb 5500 kcal thermal coal at 700 RMB/ton, up 15 RMB/ton [16] - Inner Mongolia Chifeng 4000 kcal thermal coal at 430 RMB/ton, unchanged [16] - Yanzhou 6000 kcal thermal coal at 1,130 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton [16] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remains stable at 698 RMB/ton [18] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow of coal to the Bohai Rim ports increased, while the outflow decreased, indicating a buildup in inventory [26][30] - The average daily number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 123, down 10% from the previous week [30] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes fell to 47.27 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.25% [33] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets [35]