宏观专题分析报告：2026年财政政策展望：投资于人

Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The economic growth target for 2026 is set around 5%, emphasizing the shift towards domestic demand, particularly in the areas of livelihood and consumption[2][9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a per capita GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% annually, with a potential GDP growth rate of around 5% during this period[8]. Fiscal Policy and Budget - The general public budget deficit rate for 2026 is projected to be 4.2%, with a deficit scale of 6.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 520 billion yuan from 2025[3][15]. - In a more optimistic scenario, the deficit rate could rise to 4.5%, with a total deficit of 6.62 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 960 billion yuan[16]. Social Welfare and Consumer Support - Fiscal spending on child-rearing subsidies is expected to be between 100 billion to 120 billion yuan in 2026, alongside an expansion of free preschool education costing over 50 billion yuan[3][10]. - The increase in urban and rural residents' basic pensions is anticipated to exceed 1,000 billion yuan, with a minimum increase of 50 yuan per person[11]. Investment and Infrastructure - Effective investment will be expanded, focusing on urban renewal and basic public service construction, with an estimated 200 billion yuan allocated for urban renewal projects[4][28]. - The issuance of special bonds for equipment upgrades is expected to remain at 200 billion yuan, supporting the modernization of key industries[5][34]. Debt Management and Corporate Support - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan in 2026, aimed at alleviating debt pressure on local governments[35]. - The new local government special bond limit is expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, with 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt repayment and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, marking an increase of 1 trillion yuan from 2025[36].