几内亚矿价小幅下跌，氧化铝供应少量修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Guinea's bauxite price has slightly decreased, leading to a minor improvement in alumina supply. However, the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and the price has theoretical downward space. It is not advisable to over - speculate, and a bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, Henan, and Guizhou, the prices of bauxite were 700 yuan/ton, 658 yuan/ton, and 596 yuan/ton respectively. Although some mines in Shanxi and Henan resumed production after the rainy season, the increase was limited. Due to the heating season and strict mining regulations, domestic ore supply is difficult to improve in the short term. The price of Guinea's bauxite dropped by 1 US dollar/dry ton to 70 - 71 US dollars/dry ton, and its shipping volume is recovering. Newly arrived ore was 398.3 million tons, including 264.7 million tons from Guinea and 127.8 million tons from Australia. The market reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China rose slightly to 24.5 US dollars/ton [12] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina decreased slightly last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2833.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton from last week. The port price of imported alumina was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. After a round of replenishment, downstream demand decreased. The import window was closed. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2818 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 58 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.1 million tons in operation, an increase of 300,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 83.6% [13] - Demand: Domestic demand remained unchanged, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 44.233 million tons, unchanged from the previous period. Overseas, Indonesia's Xinfa Juwang Aluminum Industry was in stable production, with an operating capacity of about 80,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.596 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week [13] - Inventory: As of November 20th, the national alumina inventory was 4.344 million tons, an increase of 43,000 tons from last week. Due to factors such as high - efficiency shipping and environmental protection restrictions, inventory changes varied in different sectors [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 250,910 tons, a decrease of 2,744 tons from last week. The alumina futures price continued to be weak. With the decline in Guinea's bauxite price and the increase in loss - making production capacity, the market remained in oversupply [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - Overseas Freight and Import Profit: On November 21st, the price of Australian alumina was about 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged from November 14th. The cost of reaching northern Chinese ports was about 2848 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. Overseas freight decreased slightly, and the theoretical import profit in the north was about - 23 yuan/ton [16] - Alumina Import and Export: In October 2025, China's alumina turned to net imports after 9 consecutive months of net exports. In October, 176,000 tons of alumina were exported, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; 189,000 tons were imported, a month - on - month increase of 215% and a year - on - year increase of 2923%. The net import in October was 13,000 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to October was 1.438 million tons [16] - Guangxi Alumina Market: Around November 25th, two ships of imported alumina will arrive at Guangxi ports, supplementing the southern market supply. The progress of four new alumina projects in Guangxi varies. A 2 - million - ton project has been completed but has no definite production information. Three projects with a total annual capacity of 7.2 million tons are under construction, and two of them have started caustic soda procurement for future commissioning. New production capacity is expected to start commissioning from January to February 2026 [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - Raw Materials and Cost: The report monitors data such as domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][24][26] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It monitors domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. The data shows the changes in alumina production capacity, electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and supply - demand differences from July to November 2025 [31][32][37] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: It monitors the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/stations/in - transit, ports, and total social inventory, as well as the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the ratio of holding volume to warehouse receipt volume [40][43][45]