利率比价关系视角，债市怎么看？

Group 1 - The effectiveness of the transmission of policy interest rates to the financial market and the real economy has significantly improved, but there is still room for improvement in the transmission to bond yields [2][7][10] - A reasonable interest rate comparison relationship is essential for the transmission of monetary policy, and different types of interest rates should maintain a reasonable relationship without long-term significant deviations [7][10] - The transmission of funding rates to bond yields has shown an overall improvement trend since 2025, but there remains considerable room for improvement in this area [7][10] Group 2 - The current representative interest rate comparison indicates that the government bond yield has returned to a relatively reasonable range, with limited short-term downward space [10][11] - The downward adjustment of deposit rates is likely to outpace that of loan rates, suggesting that institutional investors may consider early positioning [14][18] - The relative comparison of loan rates and bond rates shows limited short-term compression space for bond yields, emphasizing the need to focus on the certainty of mid-to-short-term credit bond arbitrage value [19][20] Group 3 - The static value of ultra-long-term bonds is highlighted for bank institutions, while the current configuration value of loan rates is not apparent [27][30] - For public funds, the cost-effectiveness of mid-to-short-term credit bonds is relatively higher, as the long-term bond yields face limited downward expectations and upward space [27][33] - The bond market is expected to continue a narrow fluctuation trend, with a recommendation to focus on the certainty of mid-to-short-term credit bond arbitrage value [34]