原木周度报告：国泰君安期货·黑色与建材-20251123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat compared to last week, and European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of November 16, 17 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 16 bound for mainland China, and it is expected that 1.41 million cubic meters will arrive in November [5][8]. - As of the week of November 14, the daily average shipment volume of major ports decreased, and the total inventory of four major ports increased by 29,200 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][13]. - As of the week of November 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 7.1% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The US dollar strengthened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate rising by 0.15% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rising by 1.6% [6][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - As of November 16, 17 ships departed from New Zealand in November, 16 of which were headed for mainland China, and 12 ships were expected to arrive in November and 5 in December. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.41 million cubic meters [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 20,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1,700 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 10,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters) [6][13]. - Inventory: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2928 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 27,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 371,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 24,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 264,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 9,900 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 181,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 32,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.11 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 29,200 cubic meters [6][13]. Market Trends - As of November 21, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 768.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 2.3% compared to last week. The monthly spread (absolute value) widened this week [19]. Price and Spread - Spot price: The prices of various specifications of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat compared to last week, with varying degrees of decline compared to four weeks ago [22]. - Regional spread: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions [22][24][29]. - Tree species and specification spread: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications of radiata pine [41][43][45]. Other - Freight and exchange rate: As of the week of November 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 7.1% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The US dollar strengthened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate rising by 0.15% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rising by 1.6% [6][55][56].