——策略周专题（2025年11月第3期）：海外波动加剧，拖累国内市场

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week, with major indices declining due to decreased market risk appetite. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.7%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 6.2%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is at the 83rd percentile since 2010 [1][10][12] - In terms of industry performance, the banking, media, and food and beverage sectors showed relatively smaller declines, with respective changes of -0.9%, -1.3%, and -1.4%. In contrast, sectors such as power equipment, comprehensive, and basic chemicals faced larger declines, with changes of -10.5%, -9.2%, and -7.5% [1][10][14] Group 2 - Recent significant events include China's stern diplomatic response to Japan's remarks, the Netherlands suspending an administrative order against ASML, and Russia's announcement of a visa-free policy for Chinese citizens [2][19][20] - Economic data released this week showed that the one-year and five-year LPR rates in China remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively. In the U.S., September's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, leading to speculation that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts in December [2][21] Group 3 - The market is still in a bull phase, but short-term fluctuations are expected. The Shanghai Composite Index saw a weekly decline of 3.9%, while the STAR 50 Index dropped by 5.54%. The volatility in the A-share market is influenced by fluctuations in overseas markets, particularly in the tech sector [3][24][25] - The current market position may represent the starting point of a long-term bull market, supported by improving fundamentals and industry highlights. However, short-term catalysts may be lacking, leading to a phase of consolidation [3][25] Group 4 - Short-term investment focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should remain on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors. High-dividend and consumer stocks are expected to perform better during market fluctuations [3][35][38] - The TMT sector currently has several catalysts, including Alibaba's launch of a new AI model and Oracle's significant growth in remaining performance obligations. If the market shifts to a fundamentals-driven phase, advanced manufacturing is likely to become a key focus [3][40][43]