Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations[4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% in September[4] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%[4] Group 2: Wage Growth and Job Quality - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month in September, down from 0.4% in August[4] - The quality of non-farm data is questioned, as the response rate for the survey was 80.2%, significantly above historical averages, indicating higher reliability[4][18] Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a December rate cut fluctuated, with probabilities rising to nearly 70% following dovish comments from Fed officials[6][8] - The FOMC's internal division on rate cuts shows a support-to-opposition ratio of approximately 4:5[7] Group 4: Broader Economic Indicators - High-frequency ADP data showed weakness in October, while initial jobless claims remained stable, suggesting mixed signals in the labor market[5][26] - The U.S. government announced a trade framework to lower food tariffs, while Japan proposed a fiscal stimulus plan worth 21.3 trillion yen[8]
9月非农点评与12月美联储降息展望：跟随市场
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-23 09:46