地方债周度跟踪：减国债利差皆收窄，下周发行明显提速-20251123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this period, but are expected to increase significantly next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23) was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan, and the expected issuance/net financing for next period (2025.11.24 - 2025.11.30) is 351.461 billion yuan/326.313 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds slowed down this period and is expected to speed up significantly next period. As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 91.4% and 100.7% considering the expected issuance next period [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 347.5 billion yuan [2]. - The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds for 10 - year and 30 - year terms narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of November 21, 2025, the spreads were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025 [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain value for investment [2]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased this period compared to the previous period, but is expected to increase next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.30 years, longer than 13.90 years in the previous period [2][5][10]. - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 91.4% and 100.7% considering the expected issuance next period. The cumulative issuance progress is lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][13][16]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 347.5 billion yuan. As of November 21, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed the planned issuance [2][24][25]. - This period, special new special bonds worth 4.9 billion yuan were issued, and special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued at 0 billion yuan and 40 billion yuan respectively [2][20][21]. 3.2 This period, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis - As of November 21, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025, and are at the 18.00% and 69.70% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][30][34]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.80%, up from 0.71% in the previous period [2][37][38]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Xiamen, Beijing, and Jiangxi are better than the national average [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain value for investment. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread [2].