国泰君安期货·能源化工尿素周度报告-20251123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to oscillate within the valuation range. The domestic fundamental pressure is relatively high, but the downward driving force is mitigated by policy regulation. In November, with mid - stream replenishment and the fourth batch of export quotas driving speculation, spot trading has continuously improved, and upstream enterprises are expected to be in a stage of slight destocking [2]. - The 01 contract of urea has a strong fundamental pressure level at 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is expected to be at 1,550 - 1,560 yuan/ton. In terms of trading strategies, for single - side trading, it is expected to oscillate with short - term support and medium - term correction; for inter - period trading, it is recommended to go short on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high and go long on the 5 - 9 spread when it is low; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical data of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Jin Kai, Bo Da, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices of urea [5][9][15][19]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continues in 2025. The total new capacity in 2024 was 392 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to reach 716 tons, with multiple new capacity projects put into operation or planned to be put into operation [23]. - Production Plan: A list of urea production enterprise maintenance plans is provided, including information such as enterprise name, annual capacity, raw materials, shutdown and restart dates, and lost production [25]. - Output: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high. Charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea in China [26][27]. - Cost: The raw material prices are stable, and the factory cash - flow cost line has increased. Cost calculations for Shanxi's fixed - bed factories and historical data on the full cost of urea's airflow bed, fixed - bed, and natural gas are presented [29][30][31]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state, and charts show the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different production methods [34][35][37]. - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. A table shows the monthly net import (export) data of urea from 2018 - 2025 (E) [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics and is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. Charts show the production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers [46][49][53]. - Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The compound fertilizer industry has its own fundamentals, including capacity utilization rate, production cost, inventory, and production profit [55][53][54]. - Melamine: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine are presented in charts [56][57][58]. - Real Estate and Panels: The demand support from the real estate industry for panels is limited, but panel exports are resilient, with data on the export volume of plywood, OSB, and real estate construction and completion areas provided [59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - Port Inventory: As of November 20, 2025 (week 47), the sample port inventory of Chinese urea was 100,000 tons, a 21.95% increase from the previous week. Most ports have low inventory levels, and the overall port inventory fluctuates slightly [64]. - Factory Inventory: On November 19, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week. The inventory changes in different provinces vary, and the overall enterprise inventory has decreased [65]. 3.5 International Urea - Multiple charts show the historical data of international urea prices, including FOB prices of Chinese, Baltic, and Middle - East large - granular urea and CFR prices of Brazilian large - granular urea [69][70][72].