国泰君安期货·能源化工：石油沥青周度报告-20251123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 24.8%, a 4.2% decrease from the previous week due to some enterprises halting production or switching to other products [4]. - The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 370,000 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The shipment volume increased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions [4]. - Crude oil continued to weaken during the week, and the shipment of asphalt in the north showed signs of acceleration. With mediocre fundamental drivers, asphalt may maintain a weak trend in the short term following crude oil [4]. - The average weekly theoretical profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 571 yuan/ton, a 42 - yuan increase from the previous week. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,185 yuan/ton, a 38 - yuan decrease from the previous period [4]. - The recommended strategies are: 1) For the single - side operation, no specific strategy is given; 2) For the inter - period operation, take profit on the reverse spread; 3) For the inter - variety operation, go long on BU and short SC [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Supply: The decline in capacity utilization was due to enterprises like Liaoning Zhende, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Yunnan Petrochemical halting asphalt production, and some refineries in East China and Shandong Shengxing switching to producing residual oil [4]. - Demand: In the Northeast, the increase in low - sulfur asphalt production and price cuts by refineries supported the increase in shipment volume. In Shandong, terminal demand and the concentrated delivery of contracts by individual refineries drove the increase in shipment volume [4]. - Viewpoint: The short - term trend of asphalt may be weak following the decline of crude oil [4]. - Valuation: The average price of asphalt decreased, with 6 regions seeing price drops (0.8% - 4.4%) and only 1 region (Shandong) having a 0.2% price increase [4]. - Strategy: As mentioned above, including single - side, inter - period, and inter - variety strategies [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and different types of crude oils. Some raw materials have advantages like not requiring crude oil quotas and being exempt from consumption tax. Different crude oils also have different asphalt yields [7]. - Futures: There are data on the trading volume, open interest, and price trends of asphalt futures, as well as the price trends of related crude oil futures such as Brent, WTI, and SC [9][11]. - Spot: There are data on the prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margins in Shandong [12]. - Spread: There are data on the basis (e.g., Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta) and the inter - month spread of asphalt [14][16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - Consumption Distribution: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the marine fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, but the influence of some markets is relatively small [21]. - Shipment Volume: The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 2.2% week - on - week, with significant increases in the Northeast and Shandong regions [4][25]. - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 10.6%, a 0.6% decrease both week - on - week and year - on - year. The production enthusiasm of enterprises in Central and North China continued to decline, while the increase in demand in the South was slow [25]. 3.3.2 Supply - Supply Pattern: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports. Different regions and refineries have different characteristics in terms of quotas, production, and inventory [27]. - Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials: There are data on the weekly production volume of asphalt and the weekly port inventory of diluted asphalt. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 5.2% from November 17, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 0.7% [29][30][31]. - Start - up: There are data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions (e.g., Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, Central China, South China, Southwest, Northeast) [35][36][38]. - Inventory: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions (e.g., North China, Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast, South China) [43].