国债期货周报-20251123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - term contracts of Treasury bond futures declined weekly. The global equity market corrected this week, showing signs of a liquidity crisis. The report maintains the view that the medium - term general direction is oscillating with a downward bias [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an oscillating and differentiated pattern. Short - term varieties were relatively stable, while long - term varieties fluctuated more due to policy expectations and equity market disturbances. The central bank restarted an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, but the policy synergy weakened the supply shock. The divergence between interest - rate bonds and Treasury bond futures lies in the expectation of policy to stimulate domestic demand and counter - involution and the relatively weak macro - fundamentals. As the contract roll - over approaches, the long - term spread and basis have converged. The logic of asset shortage, the easing of deflationary pressure, and the loose tone of monetary policy provide medium - and long - term bottom support for the bond market, but attention should be paid to the impact of equity market fluctuations and policy implementation rhythm on the long - end [5]. - In terms of market characteristics, the Treasury bond futures market shows a differentiation of stable short - end and volatile long - end. The yield curve alternates between steepening and flattening. The short - end is supported by the capital market, and the long - end is disturbed by the equity market [7]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No detailed information provided. 3.3. Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 1.37%, foreign capital increased by 3.31%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.69%. Weekly changes: private funds increased by 6.41%, foreign capital increased by 6.33%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 8.03% [14].