股市高位回调，但政策呵护可期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock indices is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent adjustment of the A-share market is due to three reasons: the fading of market speculative sentiment, the repeated expectations of US liquidity easing, and the debate on whether there is a bubble in the US AI field. However, the adjustment range is limited, and the mid - term slow - bull pattern of the market is still optimistic. This is because the national team's demand to protect the stable operation of the capital market exists, and the US liquidity easing has not subsided [2][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview 3.1.1 Next Week's View - The policy's attitude of maintaining stability remains unchanged. Although the A - share market has corrected, it is difficult to have a downward trend. The adjustment range is limited, and the mid - term slow - bull pattern of the market is still promising [11] 3.1.2 This Week's Key Event Concerns - On November 17, the national general public budget revenue from January to October increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange in October had a surplus of 177 million US dollars [12][13] - On November 18, Beijing supported the issuance of consumer infrastructure Reits, and the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 - year - old labor force excluding students in October was 17.3% [14][16] - On November 19, the Ministry of Finance advanced the budget of some central financial subsidies for urban affordable housing projects in 2026 [17] - On November 20, the LPR in November remained unchanged. Vice - Premier He Lifeng supported the development of new business forms such as cross - border e - commerce, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promoted the "Four Good" construction [18][19][20] - On November 21, the total social electricity consumption in October increased by 10.4% year - on - year [21] 3.2 One - Week Market Quote Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 17 to November 21, the global stock market denominated in US dollars fell sharply. The MSCI global index dropped 2.48%. India's stock market outperformed the global average, while China's stock market had the worst performance [22] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 17 to November 21, Chinese equity assets fell sharply. Among them, A - shares had an average daily trading volume of 1.8652 trillion yuan, a decrease of 178.8 billion yuan compared with last week. All A - share broad - based indices closed down [25] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - This week, most global GICS primary industries closed down. The leading industry was telecommunications services (+1.21%), and the underperforming industry was information technology (-4.80%). In the Chinese market, telecommunications services had a relatively small decline, while materials lagged behind [28] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - This week, 0 out of 30 A - share CITIC primary industries rose (20 last week), and 30 fell (10 last week). The industry with the smallest decline was media (-1.39%), and the largest was new energy (-9.41%) [29] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles: Large - Cap Value Dominates - This week, value outperformed growth, and the market - capitalization style was biased towards large - cap stocks [34] 3.2.6 Futures Basis Overview - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [34][36] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview 3.3.1 Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report provides the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of various broad - based indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 100, etc. [42] 3.3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - The report shows the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of various primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [43] 3.3.3 Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [44][49] 3.3.4 Broad - Based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.69%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 9.45%. For the CSI 500, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted down to 27.87%, and the 2026 rate was adjusted down to 20.63%. For the CSI 1000, the 2025 rate was adjusted up to 29.17%, and the 2026 rate was adjusted down to 24.87% [50] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year yield increased, the 1 - year yield decreased, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 99.3, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.10 [58] 3.4.2 Trading - Type Capital Tracking - This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 16.1 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance decreased by 300 million yuan [61] 3.4.3 Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 increased by 800 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 1.44 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 1.4 billion shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 increased by 3 billion shares [66][70] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data 3.5.1 Supply Side: Tire Operating Rate Declined - The report shows data on the national blast furnace operating rate, coking enterprise operating rate, domestic crude steel daily output, and tire operating rate [72][74] 3.5.2 Consumption Side: Real - Estate Transactions Remained Sluggish - Real - estate transaction data such as the transaction area of first - hand houses in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the transaction area of second - hand houses in 16 key cities, etc. are presented. The passenger car wholesale sales growth rate rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $62.5 per barrel [80][88] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation: Producer Goods Prices Stabilized, and Agricultural Product Prices Rebounded - Producer goods prices gradually stabilized, and agricultural product prices continued to recover [90][91]