金银周报-20251123

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level fluctuations, while silver's decline is catalyzed by its risk - asset attributes. The short - term "bottom - fishing" value of gold and silver exists, but it still awaits drivers and catalysts. Gold's current adjustment is considered a monthly - scale jump, and silver is expected to reach a new high this year based on domestic and foreign spot contradictions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - For gold, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to $1.479 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was $22.4 per ounce [9]. - For silver, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.329 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was $0.285 per ounce [12]. - Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - The domestic gold spot - futures price spread was - 4.26 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - The domestic silver spot - futures price spread was 17 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. - Inter - month Price Spread - The gold inter - month price spread was 7.14 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - The silver inter - month price spread was 63 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [27]. - Cost of Long - Short Spread Arbitrage in Near - and Far - month Contracts - For gold, the cost of buying TD and short - selling Shanghai gold futures in near - and far - month contracts was calculated, with a total cost of 27.93 yuan per gram for buying TD and short - selling Shanghai gold futures in one case, and - 7.43 yuan per gram in another case [30][31]. - For silver, the cost of buying TD and short - selling Shanghai silver futures in near - and far - month contracts was calculated, with a total cost of 24.97 yuan per kilogram for one case and 167.53 yuan per kilogram for another case [32][33]. - Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot at Shanghai Gold Exchange - This week, the gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power, while the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [34]. - Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.5% [36]. - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465 tons to 14,329 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8% [38]. - The gold futures inventory remained unchanged, the silver futures inventory decreased by 57 tons to 519 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 90 tons to 774 tons [41]. - CFTC Non - commercial Positions in Gold and Silver - This week, the non - commercial net - long position in COMEX gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net - long position in silver decreased slightly [43]. - ETF Positions - The inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 8.36 tons [49]. - The inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 39.5 tons [51]. - Gold - to - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - to - silver ratio rose from 78.4 last week to 83 [54]. - COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 5.6% [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates returned, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - No specific summary content was provided in the text, but relevant data trends were presented in the figures [67]. - Non - farm Employment Performance - No specific summary content was provided in the text, but relevant data trends were presented in the figures [70]. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - No specific content was provided in the text. - Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - No specific content was provided in the text. - Probability of Fed Rate Cuts - No specific content was provided in the text.