燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告：国泰君安期货·能源化工-20251123

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: November 23, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019111 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Price Trend: This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil at home and abroad began to weaken during the decline. For high-sulfur fuel oil, Middle Eastern exports continued to surge, with most of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia and Iran. Considering that the major maintenance in Saudi Arabia is about to end, the short-term weakness of high-sulfur fuel oil may not be reversed. For low-sulfur fuel oil, refinery maintenance in Brazil and European refineries' shift to deep processing of heavy components to increase gasoline and diesel production led to a decrease in the amount of spot flowing to the Asia-Pacific region, and the spot transaction premium began to gradually recover. However, refineries in Brazil and Kuwait will gradually resume operations next month, and spot supply will gradually recover in the future, putting pressure on the market. Therefore, in the short term, the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil will gradually end. Considering that low-sulfur fuel oil has been stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil in the previous period, this situation may gradually reverse in the future [4]. - Valuation: FU: 2400 - 2500; LU: 3000 - 3250 [4]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term. 2) Inter - period: The monthly spread structure of FU and LU has returned to contango, and it is difficult to reverse under the condition of loose supply. 3) Inter - variety: The cracking spread of FU/LU may continue to decline; the LU - FU spread will gradually decline in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Refinery Operations: The content shows the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025 through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Charts present the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Charts show the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [19][20]. 3.2 Demand - Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data: Charts display the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [23]. 3.3 Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Charts show the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [27][29][30]. 3.4 Price and Spread - FOB Prices in Asia - Pacific Region: Charts present the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah and Singapore from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [35][36][37]. - FOB Prices in European Region: Charts show the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, north - western Europe, and other regions from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [39][40][42][44]. - Fuel Oil Spot Prices in US Region: Charts display the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Charts show the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe, Singapore, and the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2024 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [48][49][52][53][54]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Charts present the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [58][59]. - Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread: Charts show the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2019 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [63][64][65]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: Charts display the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2023 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [67]. 3.5 Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Charts show the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [72][74][75]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Charts present the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [77]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Charts show the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [79]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Review and Logic: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic market was relatively weak, and the domestic - foreign spread began to gradually shrink from the previous high. For FU, the short positions still led the long positions, causing FU to perform weaker than the overseas spot, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, both long and short positions were gradually closing, but the number of warehouse receipts remained stable after the delivery, and a new batch of spot may enter the Zhoushan market at the end of the month, so the convergence of the domestic - foreign spread may end in the short term [82]. - Domestic - Foreign Spread Data: Specific data on the domestic - foreign spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and various futures contracts from November 17 - 21, 2025 are provided [83]. - Domestic - Foreign Spread Charts: Charts show the domestic - foreign spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and various futures contracts from 2021 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [86][87][89][90][91]. 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - Position and Volume Charts: Charts display the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contracts, and related contracts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [93][95][98][100]. 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - Warehouse Receipt Quantity Charts: Charts show the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [104][105].