不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限：镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is limited in its upward movement due to the long - term logic of hydrometallurgy replacing pyrometallurgy and weak refined nickel demand. However, in the short - term, with marginal improvement in the macro - environment and the resonance of news, there may be a certain degree of price repair. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of Indonesian news [1]. - The stainless steel market has a weak fundamental situation, but the downside is also limited. The market is affected by macro - marginal factors and policy uncertainties in Indonesia [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamentals - Nickel: The inventory accumulation of refined nickel has slowed down. The demand for corrosion - resistant alloys is under pressure, and the proportion of using ferronickel to replace nickel plates in the nickel alloy segment has increased. The long - term supply increase expectation of low - cost hydrometallurgy remains. Macro - level, dovish remarks from the Fed have boosted expectations, and there are many uncertainties in Indonesia, which may support the nickel price in the short - term [1]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals are weak, with high upstream inventory, low terminal manufacturing investment growth, and weak post - production cycle consumption. The market is in a seasonally weak period, and the supply - demand relationship has shifted from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, showing a slight surplus. The cost of ferronickel has limited downward space, and short - selling at low levels is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [2]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: China's social inventory decreased by 1099 tons to 53144 tons, with warehouse receipt inventory decreasing by 1242 tons to 33785 tons, and spot inventory increasing by 143 tons to 15589 tons. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3770 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1860 tons to 253950 tons [3][4]. - New energy: On November 14, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by 0, +1, 0 month - on - month to 4, 9, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed by - 0.6 month - on - month to 12.3 days; on November 13, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.2 month - on - month to 6.9 days [4]. - Ferronickel - stainless steel: On October 31, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 30225 tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of +3%/+2%. In October, the SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of +9%/3%. On November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the Steel Union was 1071733 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. Among them, the total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 621623 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.51%, and the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 658798 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.17% [4]. Market News - In September, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons [5]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imported from Russia [6]. - In September, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees for 2025 [6]. - In September, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the preparation, submission, and approval procedures of the mining RKAB for the next year. The approval plan is expected to be completed by November 15 this year, and there are transition clauses [6]. - Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [7]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [7]. - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel hydrometallurgy projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds in December, affecting the output by about 6000 nickel metal tons [7]. - On November 21, the New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, prompting investors to increase the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [7].