Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report expects ICE cotton to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the market needs to wait for the futures to technically determine the bottom support. Domestic cotton futures are predicted to show a narrow - range oscillation. The high basis continues to support Zhengzhou cotton futures, and attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [1][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Data - ICE cotton main contract: The opening price was 64.14, the highest was 64.87, the lowest was 63.11, and the closing price was 63.93, down 0.21 or 0.33%. The trading volume was 133,060 lots, a decrease of 81,652 lots, and the open interest was 175,119 lots, an increase of 19,151 lots [4]. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: The opening price was 13,450, the highest was 13,525, the lowest was 13,380, and the closing price was 13,460, up 10 or 0.07%. The trading volume was 915,522 lots, an increase of 18,228 lots, and the open interest was 546,911 lots, a decrease of 9,529 lots [4]. - Cotton yarn main contract: The opening price was 19,680, the highest was 19,830, the lowest was 19,645, and the closing price was 19,725, up 30 or 0.15%. The trading volume was 96,663 lots, an increase of 30,658 lots, and the open interest was 20,948 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots [4]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: It remained weak this week. The resumption of the US Department of Agriculture's weekly export data had limited support for ICE cotton. The decline in the overall financial market's risk appetite negatively affected ICE cotton, which hit a new low [5]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending October 2, 2025, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 45,100 tons, a 28% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the four - week average. The weekly shipment volume was 35,800 tons, a 34% increase from the previous week and a 25% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.029 million tons, accounting for 39% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 285,300 tons, accounting for 28% of the total annual signed volume [5]. - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: In October, textile and clothing exports decreased year - on - year. The cotton acquisition work in the 2025/26 season progressed slowly. In October, the export value of cotton textile products (excluding clothing) was $906 million, a 3% decrease from September and a 15% decrease from the same period last year. The export value of ready - made garments was $1.07 billion, a 7% increase from the previous month but a 13% decrease from October 2024 [6]. - Brazil: The market expected a substantial cotton export volume in November. Farmers' sales were still sluggish as over 70% of the 2025 output had been locked in through primary channels [7]. - Pakistan: The demand for cotton imports was very limited. As of November 15, the total volume of seed cotton on the market was 4.856505 million bales, a 1% decrease from the same period last year. In October, the export value of the top five textile categories was $1.34 billion, the same as the same period last year and a 3.4% increase from September [7][8]. - Bangladesh: Cotton import demand was restricted by difficulties in opening letters of credit and limited financing channels, as well as competition from low - priced imported yarn from India [8]. - Australia: Cotton sowing was completed. In September, the cotton export volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of November 12, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was 66% of the total capacity, slightly lower than 74% in the same period last year [8]. - Southeast Asian textile industry's operating rate: As of the week ending November 21, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [9]. 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton price: In the week of November 21, domestic cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remained stable, and some cotton merchants slightly lowered the sales basis [10]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: As of November 21, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 2,244, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 1,221, totaling 3,465, equivalent to 145,530 tons [11]. - Downstream situation: - Cotton yarn market: It entered the traditional off - season. The overall price of pure cotton yarn declined, and the market orders decreased. The operating rate of spinning enterprises slightly decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [12]. - Cotton fabric market: The transaction continued to be polarized. The overall transaction of clothing fabrics was weak, and the price was dominated by a weak trend. The overall operating load decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to rise [12]. 3.3. Basic Data Charts The report provides 14 charts, including those on Xinjiang cotton's cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton inventory, and other aspects [13][14][15]. 3.4. Operational Suggestions Wait patiently for ICE cotton to determine the short - term bottom support. Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will oscillate within a range, and pay attention to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [16].
棉花：预计短期维持震荡走势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-23 11:34