Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - International Market: The market is in a low - level consolidation phase. There is a weak expectation in the industry, with an anticipated restorative production increase and inventory accumulation in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, which is bearish. The New York raw sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the accelerated crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil and the expected significant increase in India's sugar production. Although sugar prices have dropped to a phased low, the cost of corn ethanol is still pulling down the valuation. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's production and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - Domestic Market: It presents a situation of weak reality. The market expects a stable - to - increasing domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season, but the production cost in the Guangxi region has risen due to the decline in the sugar yield rate. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, the year - on - year decline in regular imports has narrowed, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder remain at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to changes in import policies [3][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - International Market: The US dollar index is 100.15 (previous value 99.28), the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.39 (previous value 5.29), the WTI crude oil price is $57.98 per barrel (-3.29%), and the price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 14.77 cents per pound (-0.54%). As of October 7, the long positions of funds decreased by 441 lots, the short positions increased by 2809 lots, and the net long positions decreased by 3250 lots year - on - year to - 135,026 lots. As of November 1, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season was 38.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 610,000 tons. The ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season to be 34.35 million tons (previous value 34.9 million), and it was 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season. The OCSB data shows that the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [1]. - Domestic Market: The spot quotation of Guangxi groups is 5,650 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,253 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 117 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract has increased slightly. As of the end of October, the cumulative sugar imports in China in the 25/26 season were 750,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons), and the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 120,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons). The CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million), and imports to be 5 million tons [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - International Market: Low - level consolidation. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern. The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have restorative production and inventory accumulation, which is bearish. The New York raw sugar will fluctuate weakly. Although sugar prices are at a phased low, the corn ethanol cost is still pulling down the valuation. Focus on Brazil's production and export rhythm, and India's production and industrial policies [3][29]. - Domestic Market: Weak reality. The domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase steadily, but the production cost in Guangxi has risen due to the lower sugar yield. Zhengzhou sugar follows the raw sugar trend, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The out - of - quota import cost is relatively low, the year - on - year decline in regular imports has narrowed, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder remain high. Pay attention to changes in import policies [3][29]. 3.3 Macro Data - Exchange Rate: The US dollar index is 100.15 (previous value 99.28), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.39 (previous value 5.29). - Crude Oil: The WTI crude oil price is $57.98 per barrel (-3.29%) [5]. 3.4 Price and Basis - The price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 14.77 cents per pound (-0.54%). The spot quotation of Guangxi groups is 5,650 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,253 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 117 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract has increased slightly. The CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 7,971 lots. According to the latest CFTC position report (New York raw sugar), as of October 7, the long positions of funds decreased by 441 lots, the short positions increased by 2,809 lots, and the net long positions decreased by 3,250 lots year - on - year to - 135,026 lots, with a slight decrease in net long positions [9]. 3.5 Industry Data - Supply and Demand - Global Supply and Demand: The ISO expects a supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 season and a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 season. - Brazil: As of November 1, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil was 556 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%; sugar production was 38.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%; alcohol production was 26.95 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.91%; the cumulative ratio of sugar - producing cane was 51.97%, compared with 48.59% in the same period of the previous year. - India: As of May 15, the sugar production in India in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. The ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season to be 34.35 million tons (previous value 34.9 million), with 3.4 million tons of sugar consumed for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons; it was 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season (with a net sugar production of 26.1 million tons). - Thailand: The OCSB data shows that the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons. - China: The CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million), and imports to be 5 million tons. Customs data shows that the sugar imports in October 2025 were 750,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 season were 750,000 tons (+210,000 tons) [17][18].
白糖：关注进口政策变化
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-23 11:29