SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-11-23 11:34Global Market Volatility - The global stock markets experienced a collective pullback due to three main factors: increased financial fragility from overseas liquidity issues, protective options expirations causing volatility, and concerns over the sustainability of capital expenditures by major US tech companies [2][13][24] - The overnight mortgage rates in the US are inverted with the federal funds rate, indicating tight liquidity in the US money market [14][18] - The capital expenditure of major data center operators has significantly increased, with Oracle's capital expenditure exceeding its operating cash flow [24][25] Industry Development: Key Node Similar to 1997 Internet Boom - The internet boom from 1995 to 2000 can be divided into three phases, with the current AI industry potentially at a similar critical juncture as the internet in 1997 [3][29] - The first phase saw significant profit growth in upstream internet equipment companies, while the second phase marked the rise of internet service providers and the emergence of companies like Amazon [29][30] - The third phase experienced rapid revenue growth in downstream internet companies but deteriorating cash flow, leading to a decline in stock prices for these companies [30][31] Potential Impacts of AI Development on the Market - Three potential paths for AI development are identified: the emergence of significant applications leading to continued market growth, stagnation in AI applications causing tech giants to halt capital expenditures, or tech giants maintaining capital expenditures despite a lack of application progress [4][44][47] - The current situation reflects a mix of these scenarios, with tech giants increasing capital expenditures to maintain market share and reduce labor costs through AI [4][53] Highlights in Non-Tech Sectors - The US real estate market is in a recovery phase, with declining mortgage rates boosting existing home sales [5][56] - There is a continuous increase in the shipment of industrial machinery and primary metals, indicating ongoing recovery in equipment investment [5][56][58] - The labor market shows pressure with rising unemployment rates and slowing wage growth, which may benefit emerging market manufacturing recovery [5][56] Focus on China's Market Opportunities - The recent global market volatility is not seen as a directional choice for macro and industry trends, but rather as a reflection of the true driving forces behind future opportunities in the Chinese market [6] - Traditional manufacturing companies in China have realized performance amidst the global tech boom, suggesting that physical assets and manufacturing capacity will be the foundation of a potential bull market in China [6]