Market Overview - The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%[3] - The US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 100.2, indicating the end of a weak dollar environment[3] - Global risk assets mostly declined, with significant drops in equity markets, particularly in A-shares and the Hang Seng Tech Index[3] Fund Flows - In the week ending November 19, 2025, foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market totaled $318 million, while domestic capital inflows reached $3.677 billion[3] - The US equity market saw a substantial inflow of $11.8 billion, while fixed income funds in the US attracted $10.99 billion[15] Valuation Metrics - As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile was at 81.9%, second only to the S&P 500 and France's CAC40, but still significantly lower than US equities[3] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 decreased from 47% to 39%, while the Nasdaq's dropped from 46% to 35%[3] Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6,602.99, below the 20-day moving average, with an implied volatility trend on the rise[3] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 decreased to 1.03 from 1.14, indicating a marginal increase in market optimism[3] Economic Data - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 71% from 44.4% the previous week, with an 80% chance of rates falling to 3.5%-3.75% by January 2026[3]
全球资产配置每周聚焦（20251114-20251121）：降息预期波动加大，美元走强使全球权益回调-20251123
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-23 11:42